FINAL HARBINS

These would be the Harbin standings with a Highlands win over CovCath Saturday.

1	ST. XAVIER
2	WAYNE
3	CENTERVILLE
4	GLEN ESTE
5	COLERAIN
6	NORTHMONT
7	MOELLER
8	FAIRFIELD

These would be the Harbin standings with a CovCath win over Highlands Saturday.

1	ST. XAVIER
2	WAYNE
3	CENTERVILLE
4	GLEN ESTE
5	NORTHMONT
6	COLERAIN
7	MOELLER
8	FAIRFIELD

In both scenarios, LaSalle, Mason, and Lakota East would finish 9, 10, and 11.

MY FINAL REGION 4 PROJECTIONS

1. ST. XAVIER---------10-0-----41.3186
2. WAYNE---------------9-1-----32.4500
3. CENTERVILLE---------9-1-----30.0500
4. GLEN ESTE-----------9-1-----27.0500
5. LAKOTA EAST---------8-2-----26.3500
6. COLERAIN------------9-1-----26.1081
7. NORTHMONT-----------8-2-----25.5000
8. MOELLER-------------6-4-----24.7136

9. MASON---------------8-2-----24.1500
10. LASALLE------------8-2-----23.3379
11. FAIRFIELD----------8-2-----22.3000

PREP SPORTS PRIMETIME

I will be the guest on Prep Sports Primetime this Thursday around 6:30pm on 1360 Homer, The Sports Animal. The show is from 6:00-7:00 live from Champions Grille on the west side. I'll try to explain where teams are going to end up in the playoffs and what needs to happen for teams like Mason and LaSalle to sneak into the playoffs.

JK

MASON & LASALLE

MASON:

I’ll keep this short and sweet because I’m tired and I need my sleep. Mason will only make the playoffs with help from teams above them. According to the Base Scenario, Mason will finish #9. They will increase by one seed for every Glen Este, Lakota East, Northmont, and Colerain loss in week 10, if any. If Lakota West beats Lakota East, Mason could rise even higher in the final rankings. See previous posts.

Bottom Line: I project Mason to finish #9, as I think that all teams above them will win this weekend.

LASALLE:

LaSalle needs a lot of help to make the playoffs. They need a combination of any two of the following results to occur to make the playoffs: Lakota West over Lakota East, Oak Hills over Colerain, Troy over Northmont, & Winton Woods over Mason.

Bottom Line: I project LaSalle to finish #10, as I think that all teams above them will win this weekend.

MOELLER

Moeller looks to be in the playoffs regardless of their game against St. Xavier this Friday. Moeller will be fighting with Centerville for the #3 seed if Moeller defeats St. Xavier.

MOELLER OUT OF PLAYOFFS:

SCENARIO 1: St. Xavier over Moeller, Clay over Toledo St. Francis De Sales, Ironton over Columbus St. Francis Desales & ALL 3 OF THE FOLLOWING: Sycamore over Milford, Xenia over Springfield South, & Purcell-Marian over Indian Hill.

MOELLER #3

SCENARIO 1: Moeller over St. Xavier, Middletown over Princeton, Withrow over McNicholas, Toledo St. Francis over Clay, & Columbus St. Francis over Ironton

3. Moeller 30.4652
4. Centerville 30.0500

MOELLER #4

SCENARIO 1: Moeller over St. Xavier & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Princeton over Middletown, McNicholas over Withrow, Clay over Toledo St. Francis De Sales, OR Ironton over Columbus St. Francis Desales

3. Centerville
4. Moeller

If Moeller loses to St. Xavier, they will finish #8 according to the Base Scenario. They will increase one spot for every game that Lakota East, Glen Este, Colerain, and Northmont lose on week 10, if any. Scenarios for the previous teams detail the few ways Moeller could rise to #7 or higher without a loss from one of the previously mentioned teams.

BOTTOM LINE: Moeller is in the playoffs, and will earn a home game with a win over St. Xavier. I project Moeller to finish with the #8 seed and a rematch with St. Xavier in week 11.

NORTHMONT

Northmont will likely finish with the #7 seed in the region this year with an 8-2 record. If Northmont beats Troy in week 10, they WILL be in the playoffs. Neither Mason nor LaSalle will be able to overtake Northmont with the possibility to knock Northmont out of the playoffs in any scenario. Here is a listing of scenarios and where Northmont will be in them. Each scenario assumes a Northmont win, because a Northmont loss will eliminate them from playoff contention.

NORTHMONT #4 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Harrison over Glen Este, St. Xavier over Moeller, CovCath over Highlands all other games according to Base Scenario

4. Northmont 25.5000
5. Moeller 25.2178
6. Colerain 24.9970
7. Mason 24.7500
8. LaSalle 23.3379
9. Fairfield 22.9000

NORTHMONT #5 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Harrison over Glen Este, St. Xavier over Moeller, all other games according to Base Scenario

4. Colerain 25.5020
5. Northmont 25.5000
6. Mason 24.7500
7. Moeller 24.7136
8. LaSalle 23.3379
9. Fairfield 22.9000

NORTHMONT #6 SEED

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, St. Xavier over Moeller, all other games according to Base Scenario

4. Glen Este 27.0500
5. Colerain 25.5020
6. Northmont 25.5000
7. Mason 24.7500
8. Moeller 24.7136
9. LaSalle 23.3379
10. Fairfield 22.9000

NORTHMONT #8 SEED

SCENARIO 1: Moeller over St. Xavier, all other games according to Base Scenario

SCENARIO 2: Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison & CovCath over Highlands, all other games according to Base Scenario

6. Colerain 25.6030
7. Moeller 25.2178
8. Northmont 24.9000

(Note: Mason cannot overtake Northmont for the #8 seed in any scenario without Lakota West win over Lakota East. A Lakota East loss would knock East out of the playoffs and open up the final spot for Northmont)

Bottom Line: Northmont will be the #7 seed in almost every scenario that doesn’t include either an upset of Glen Este, Lakota East or Colerain, or a Moeller upset of St. Xavier. If Northmont beats Troy, they’re in the playoffs. If they lose, they are out.

BATTLE FOR THE #4 SEED: COLERAIN

Despite being lower in the week 9 Harbins and lower in my projections, Colerain has a chance of overtaking both Lakota East and Glen Este to claim the #4 seed in Region 4, assuming a Moeller loss. I realize these projection will make your head spin, because they made my head spin, and I came up with them. I think they’re right, and hopefully one of them will come to fruition Friday night and prove to be correct.

COLERAIN #4 SEED:

SCENARIO: Robert E. Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas) OR Hamilton over Fairfield, AND ALL OF THE FOLLOWING (Dixie Heights over Ryle, Withrow over McNicholas, & Mason over Winton Woods)

4. Colerain 26.7141
5. Glen Este 26.4500
6. Lakota East 26.3500

COLERAIN #5 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Tyler Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas), Fairfield over Hamilton, & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 2: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Fairfield over Hamilton & 2 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 3: Lakota West over Lakota East, Tyler Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas), & Hamilton over Fairfield

SCENARIO 4: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Hamilton over Fairfield & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 5: Lakota East over Lakota West, Highlands over CovCath, & Tyler Lee over Mesquite) & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, or Milford over Sycamore

SCENARIO 6: Lakota East over Lakota West, Highlands over CovCath, Mesquite over Tyler Lee & 2 OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, or Milford over Sycamore

SCENARIO 7: Lakota East over Lakota West, CovCath over Highlands, Mesquite over Tyler Lee & ALL OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, & Milford over Sycamore

COLERAIN #7 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Fairfield over Hamilton, AND 4 OF THE FOLLOWING: Chaminade-Julienne, LaSalle over Woodward, Sidney over Wayne, Trotwood-Madison over Fairborn, AND Miamisburg over Lebanon.

OTHERWISE, COLERAIN WOULD BE THE #6 SEED.

Bottom Line: Scenarios exist for Colerain to finish anywhere from the #4 seed to the #8 seed (Colerain would drop one seed in all the above scenarios if Moeller beats St. Xavier this Friday). I’ll put it bluntly for those of you who don’t feel like digesting all those scenarios.

• For Colerain to get a home game, Moeller has to lose to St. Xavier, and a combination of 2 teams that either Glen Este has beaten or Colerain has beaten must have results that differ from my Base Scenario that both benefit Colerain & hurt Glen Este for Colerain to finish #4.
• For Colerain to overtake Lakota East, either Lakota East has to lose, or Tyler Lee has to upset Mesquite, or Winton Woods has to knock off Mason with everything else remaining constant. Which on week 10 never happens ;-)

My fearless prediction: Colerain will finish with the #6 seed.

I may get to Northmont, Moeller, Mason, and LaSalle later this week. I’ve gotta study.

BATTLE FOR THE #4 SEED: LAKOTA EAST

Lakota East is in a rare situation. If they beat rival Lakota West, they will be in position to challenge for the #4 seed in Region 4. If they lose to Lakota West, they will be out of the playoffs.

WOW! I was just crunching the numbers, and I can see no realistic scenario in which Lakota East could overtake Glen Este for the #4 spot short of a Glen Este loss this week. There exists only one possible scenario.

SCENARIO: Dixie Heights over Mason, Withrow over McNicholas + either Oak Hills over Colerain or Hamilton over Fairfield


**There exists far more scenarios that would have Colerain leapfrog Lakota East in the rankings:

SCENARIO 1: Highlands over Covington Catholic & any of the following: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, OR Milford over Sycamore

SCENARIO 2: (Covington Catholic over Highlands) There must be 2 of the following for Colerain to jump over Lakota East: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, OR Milford over Sycamore

Bottom Line: Lakota East will be on the road or at home in round 1 of the playoffs. I'm still sticking to Lakota East holding off Colerain for the #5 spot, this race is almost too close to call.

THE BATTLE FOR THE #4 SEED: GLEN ESTE

Glen Este appears to have the inside track for the #4 seed in the playoffs. Likely to finish 9-1 and with wins over Ryle, Lakota East, and Winton Woods to their credit, Glen Este belongs in the playoffs.

As a point of clarification, a team gets 0.60 Harbin points for each division 1 team that one of its opponents beats, 0.55 for D-2, 0.50 for D-3 and so on. For example: if Lakota East (who Glen Este beat earlier in the season) beats Lakota West this week, Glen Este will get 0.6 Harbin points added to their total since Lakota West is a division 1 team. (This assumes a 100 divisor, which most teams in Region 4 have)

If Glen Este wins this week, they will hold off Lakota East for the #4 spot (assuming a Moeller loss). Glen Este will have a more difficult time holding off Colerain, as the Cardinals have the possibilityof more level 2 points not included in my Base Scenario.

Bottom Line: Glen Este will be the #4 seed unless:

1. Moeller beats St. Xavier (Moeller would be #3 or #4, Glen Este #5)
   
2. A combination of two or more games involving Glen Este and Colerain go against Glen Este or for Colerain
   

CENTERVILLE

This is where things have the possibility to get dicey. If Centerville defeats Springfield North they WILL have a home game in the first round of the playoffs.

SCENARIO 1: Centerville over North, St. Xavier over Moeller
Centerville would be the #3 seed

SCENARIO 2: Centerville over North, Moeller over St. Xavier
3. Moeller 30.4652
4. Centerville 30.0500
Centerville could very easily leapfrog Moeller depending on the level 2 points from week 10's games. This scenario is just too close to call

SCENARIO 3: Springfield North over Centerville
3. Centerville 27.15
4. Glen Este 27.0500
5. Lakota East 26.3500
6. Colerain 26.1081
If Centerville lost to Springfield North, they would probably still get a home game, but would be within .1000 of falling below Glen Este and into the fray with Lakota East and Colerain for the final home game.

Bottom Line: If Centerville defeats Springfield North, they will be hosting a playoff game, likely sitting at the #3 seed.

ST. XAVIER & WAYNE

St. Xavier and Wayne will finish #1 and #2 regardless of the outcome of their respective games this week. If Wayne loses, which is highly unlikely, they will have just enough points to hold off Centerville, and Moeller if Moeller knocks off St. Xavier.

1. St. Xavier
2. Huber Heights Wayne

UPDATE

School has been really busy lately, and looks to stay that way through the end of the week, so this may be one of the last series of updates before Friday's games. I will go team-by-tem and give scenarios for what needs to happen for each team to finish where.

JK

THANKS

I would like to say thanks to everyone who has visited my site throughout the past few weeks. I hope that you have enjoyed the site and have found it informative. At this time, I would like to ask that if you get information from the site that you source the information. I realize this isn't widespread, but I thought it was an issue that needed to be addressed.

Thanks,

JK

LAKOTA WEST OVER LAKOTA EAST; TROY OVER NORTHMONT

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.3186
2	WAYNE	9-1	31.8500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	29.4500
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	26.4500
5	COLERAIN	9-1	25.5020
6	MASON	8-2	24.7500
7	MOELLER	6-4	24.7136
8	LASALLE	8-2	23.3379
9	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.9000
10	LAKOTA EAST	7-3	22.1500
11	NORTHMONT	7-3	20.9500

TROY OVER CLAYTON NORTHMONT

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.3186
2	WAYNE	9-1	31.8500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	29.4500
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
5	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
6	COLERAIN	9-1	26.1081
7	MOELLER	6-4	24.7136
8	MASON	8-2	24.1500
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.3379
10	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000
11	NORTHMONT	7-3	20.9500

SCENARIO 3: LAKOTA WEST OVER LAKOTA EAST

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.3186
2	WAYNE	9-1	32.4500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.1000
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	26.4500
5	COLERAIN	9-1	25.5020
6	NORTHMONT	8-2	25.5000
7	MASON	8-2	27.7500
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.7136
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.3379
10	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.9000
11	LAKOTA EAST	7-3	22.1500

SCENARIO 2: MOELLER OVER ST. XAVIER

1	ST. XAVIER	9-1	37.2649
2	WAYNE	9-1	32.4500
3	MOELLER	7-3	30.4652
4	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.1000
5	GLEN ESTE	9-1	26.4500
6	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
7	COLERAIN	9-1	26.1081
8	NORTHMONT	8-2	25.5000
9	MASON	8-2	24.1500
10	LASALLE	8-2	23.9439
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

DISCLAIMER

These projections take into consider the results of many games that I will not detail here. Any difference between my projection in one of those games and the game's actual results could change the seeding of multiple teams. These projections should give you an approximation of what the top eight teams will look like based on the results of major games.

The subsequent projections are projected Harbin rankings with a change to the base scenario listed as the post's title.

JK

BASE SCENARIO

This is what I think will happen:

St. Xavier over Moeller
Wayne over Sidney
Centerville over Springfield North
Glen Este over Harrison
Lakota East over Lakota West
Colerain over Oak Hills
Northmont over Troy
Mason over Winton Woods
LaSalle over Woodward
Fairfield over Hamilton

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.3186
2	WAYNE	9-1	32.4500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.0500
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
5	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
6	COLERAIN	9-1	26.1081
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	25.5000
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.7136
9	MASON	8-2	24.1500
10	LASALLE	8-2	23.3379
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

GENERAL INFORMATION

• Wayne has clinched a home playoff game with their win over Northmont Saturday.
• Centerville must defeat Springfield North next week to clinch a first round home playoff game
• Glen Este, Lakota East, Colerain, and Northmont are still way to close to call
• Lakota East, Colerain, and Northmont must each win next week to make the playoffs
• Glen Este can lose in week 10 against Harrison and still have a good shot at the #8 seed
• Moeller can clinch a home game with a win over St. Xavier
• Mason can get into the playoffs with a win over Winton Woods and a loss by any of the following teams: Northmont, Colerain, or Lakota East.
• LaSalle can get into the playoffs with a win over Woodward and two losses by the following teams: Northmont, Colerain, Lakota East, and Mason.
• Fairfield has little chance at a playoff spot.

WAYNE

With Moeller's loss in week 9 to Lakewood St. Edward, Huber Heights Wayne can clinch the #2 seed in Region 4 with a win this week against Sidney.

WAYNE

Huber Heights Wayne will clinch the #2 seed in Region 4 with a win over Sidney this week. After defeating Centerville and Northmont by a combined score of 78-15, they clearly deserve the #2 a home game.