POST-WEEK 2 HARBIN ANALYSIS

1. ST. XAVIER
St. Xavier has scored two big wins, not just based on the caliber of their opponents, but also the based on the amount of Harbin points those opponents will bring St. Xavier throughout the year. St. Xavier will be the perfect example of how scheduling, and defeating, quality opponents early in the season will lead to a first round home game in the playoffs. The St. Xavier - Moeller game in week 10 could be for the #1 seed in Region 4.

2. MOELLER
Moeller is also 2-0 early in the season, and will receive similar Harbin points from Withrow and CovCath that St. Xavier has earned from beating Colerain and Cathedral. While Withrow and CovCath aren't the powerhouses that Colerain and Cathedral are, they are great examples of Harbin Cows." A Harbin Cow is an opponent that will go 7-3, 8-2, or 9-1 and give the team(s) they lost to a ton of Harbin points throughout the year. Withrow and CovCath will both win around seven or eight games this year, and will propel Moeller into a top-4 seed in the Region 4 playoffs.

3. CLAYTON NORTHMONT
Clayton Northmont has began the 2005 season determined to avenge last year's season where they were knocked out of the playoff by the forfeiture of all of one of its' opponents wins. Northmont dominated CJ and smoked LaSalle at Lancer Stadium. Nortmont split games with Centerville (week 3) and Huber Heights Wayne (week 9) and avoid tripping up to another GWOC opponent throughout the season to guarantee a playoff birth. At 9-1, Northmont will definitely be in the playoffs, and will probably be in the top 4.

4. CENTERVILLE
Centerville has gotten off to a good start this year by defeating Fairfield and Princeton of the GMC to start 2-0. Both these teams figure to be around .500 this year, so they will be some help to Centerville's playoff hopes, but Centerville's playoff hopes hinge on their games against Northmont and Wayne. If Centerville splits those games, they should be in with no problem. At 10-0 last year, Centerville was the #2 seed in Region 4, and they could duplicate that seeding this year if they go perfect again.

5. GLEN ESTE
No, this is not a typo. Glen Este has gotten off to a great start and may turn out to be the class of the FAVC this year. Glen Este beat a struggling Ryle team to open the season then surprised most pundits when they defeated Lakota East 23-13 Friday. This win, coupled with possible future wins against McNick, Anderson, Mason, and Winton Woods spell great times Harbin-wise for Glen Este this year. However, Glen Este doesn't have the margin for error that some other teams have, as they have defeated Ryle, and will likely have wins over Amelia, Walnut Hills, and Harrison later in the year that won't help Glen Este much at all with the Harbins.

6. OAK HILLS
Oak Hills started the season in style with a 25-22 win over Anderson in week 1 before defeating Western Hills at Mt. St. Joe in week 2. With the parity throughout the GMC this year, Oak Hills figures to have a chance at racking up Harbin points throughout their GMC schedule. If Oak Hills can defeat Elder, for the first time at Betz Memorial Stadium, on Friday, they will be in absolutely spectacular shape for a playoff birth. Oak Hills could even make the playoffs at 8-2, as they did in 1999 with losses to Elder and Colerain. If Oak Hills wants to make the playoffs, they can't lose to non-Elder/Colerain opponents, and if they hope for a home game, they have to split with Elder and Colerain.

7. COLERAIN
Colerain showed no signs of struggle against Highlands on Saturday night. Colerain can virtually clinch a playoff birth this week with a win over Tyler Lee, Texas. If Colerain beats Tyler Lee, they will finish the season at no worse than 8-2, which will be good enough for a playoff birth. Colerain still has a chance at a top 4 seed with a win over Lee. Colerain would get loads of Harbin points from Lee and could finish up with the #3 seed if they go 9-1 as they did in 2002 when they finished 9-1 with an opening week loss to Moeller.

8. ELDER
While it is not panic time for Elder fans, it should be noted that Elder missed an opportunity for many Harbin points Saturday afternoon. The loss to Massillon Washington means that Elder needs to finish 6-2 to end the season to comfortably make the playoffs at 7-3. Elder's schedule makes this a difficult task, but the resilience they showed today coming almost all the way back from a 28-point defecit in the fourth quarter tells me that they are up to the challenge.


BEST OF THE REST
9. HUBER HEIGHTS WAYNE
10. LEBANON
11. WITHROW
12. PRINCETON
13. LASALLE
14. ANDERSON
15. MASON
16. LAKOTA EAST
17. LAKOTA WEST
18. HUGHES CENTER
19. FAIRFIELD
20. TROY

WEEK 2: A CINCINNATI HARBIN NIGHTMARE!

Where do I start? So many Cincinnati teams stubbed themselves in the foot this week, missing critical opportunities to gather valuable Harbin points early in the year. While Cincinnati teams were stumbling, Dayton teams were rolling, as Clayton Northmont, Centerville, and Huber Heights Wayne all scored big victories to put themselves in good positions for playoff births. There were a few bright spots for Cincinnati this week, as St. Xavier, Moeller, and Colerain racked up victories over "Harbin cows" that will give the teams many Harbin points throughout the year. Here's a team-by-team synopsis of who's in good shape, in bad shape, or somewhere in between after two weeks of action.

LOOKING GOOD FOR A PLAYOFF BIRTH:
1. ST. XAVIER
2. MOELLER
3. CLAYTON NORTHMONT
4. CENTERVILLE

...ROUNDING OUT THE TOP 8
5. GLEN ESTE
6. OAK HILLS
7. COLERAIN
8. ELDER

... ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
9. HUBER HEIGHTS WAYNE



Week 2 had many Cincinnati contenders lose to non-Cincinnati opponents. Elder lost to Massillon Washington by 4, LaSalle got throttled at home by Clayton Northmont 42-7, Mason got pounded by Hilliard Davidson by 24, Princeton fell to Centerville, and Fairfield lost by a point to Wayne. In addition, two perennial GMC playoff contenders, Lakota East and Lakota West, had uncharacteristic losses in week 2, with West losing to Winton Woods, and East falling to Glen Este.

WHAT THIS MEANS:

• Elder must beat Oak Hills Friday with huge games looming with GCL opponents, as well as St. Edward, and Bishop Chatard, while Oak Hills can afford a setback as long as they take care of their GMC schedule.
  
• LaSalle really misses Sheehan, and their playoff hopes look very dormant right now.
• Mason vs. Lakota East this Friday is likely a playoff game with the loser falling to 1-2, and most likely out of the playoff hunt.
• Princeton must finish the season 6-2 as they lost so many possible Harbin point in week 2.
• Fairfield must win out. They're not going to make it at 7-3. Luckily for them, Fairfield has a realistic chance to win each of their remaining games.
• Lakota West must win out. They have no margin for error.

POST-WEEK 1 HARBIN FORECAST

St. Xavier
St. Xavier took a huge step to earning a playoff birth with their week 1 victory over Colerain. St. Xavier will make the playoffs with a record of 7-3 or better, and could realistically sneak in with a 6-4 record, though I think they will finish with at least 7 wins. St. Xavier should get significant Harbin points from every opponent they beat, because St. Xavier has one of the most difficult schedules in the state, with each opponent likely to finish with 5 wins or more.

Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-4 seed
7-3: 4-6 seed
6-4: 7-10 seed


Moeller
Moeller started their 2005 season off well with a 38-6 pounding of Withrow. Withrow, like most of Moeller's oppents should give the Crusaders the Harbin points they need to make a run at the #1 seed in Region 4. If Moeller survives unscathed through the first nine weeks of the season, they could face St. Xavier in week 10 at Lockland Stadium with not only a GCL South title on the line, but also the #1 seed in Region 4 at stake.

Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-5 seed
7-3: 5-7 seed
6-4: 8-10 seed


Centerville
Centerville got off to a good start to the 2005 season with a 14-3 home win over Fairfield. Centerville finished 10-0 last year to earn the #2 seed in the Region 4 playoffs. Centerville needs to win two of three against Princeton, Clayton Northmont, and Huber Heights Wayne to secure a playoff birth again in 2005.

Prediction:
10-0: 2-3 seed
9-1: 3-5 seed
8-2: 6-9 seed
7-3: No playoffs


Elder
Elder earned a significant Harbin victory in week 1 over Huber Heights Wayne. With a difficult schedule looming, it was important for Elder to rack up Harbin points before they play the likes of St. Edward, St. Xavier, Moeller, and Indianapolis Bishop Chatard later in the season. Last year Elder finished 7-3 and finished 6th in the Harbins, but would have missed the playoffs at 6-4.

Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-4 seed
7-3: 5-7 seed
6-4: 7-10 seed


Lakota East
Lakota East has increased the difficulty of their nonconference schedule this year, and after week 1, the results have been fruitful. Lakota East defeated Lebanon 31-9 Friday night, and as a result will earn far more Harbin points than they did last year for defeating (2-8) Thomas Worthington. If Lakota East beats Glen Este and Mason in the next two weeks, they would likely only need to defeat either Oak Hills, Colerain, OR, Lakota West to make the playoffs at 8-2 thanks to their improved schedule.

Prediction:
10-0: 1-2 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 4-7 seed
7-3: 7-10 seed


Colerain
Colerain lost an opportunity for a #1 seed in the playoffs in week 1 with their 7-0 loss to St. Xavier. Remember, Colerain was a #3 seed with 10-0 record last season, and rolled through the playoffs with no problem last year. If Colerain defeats Highlands and sweeps their GMC opponents, they will make the playoffs. If Colerain wins out, they can still host a playoff game again this year. If Colerain begins GMC play 0-3, they will likely be out of playoff contention, due to GMC games against Hamilton and Milford, who historically haven't provided opponents with many Harbin points in the recent past.

Prediction:
9-1: 3-5 seed
8-2: 5-7 seed
7-3: 8-10 seed


LaSalle
LaSalle got off to a fast start with a 35-7 victory over Sycamore Saturday afternoon, but lost quarterback Tyler Sheehan in the process. Runningback Isaac Green, who ran for over 100 yards in the game, and LaSalle's defense will likely have to carry the Lancers for the near future as Sheehan recovers from a broken collar bone. LaSalle has a difficult schedule once again this season, but it doesn't include Colerain. If LaSalle goes 4-1 against Northmont, Xenia, Louisville Butler, and East Central, they could slide into the playoffs again at 6-4 without winning a GCL South game. If LaSalle goes 4-1 in the aforementioned games, and wins at least one GCL South game, they will be a lock for the playoffs.

Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 2-3 seed
8-2: 4-5 seed
7-3: 6-7 seed
6-4: 8-10 seed


Mason
Mason put itself right into the playoff picture Friday night with their win over Lakota West at Yaeger Stadium. Mason, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances should be the favorite for an FAVC title this year. While Mason finished 7th in the Harbins last year with an 8-2 record, this year they could have an outside shot at making the playoffs this year at 7-3. Mason will rack up big Harbin points this week if they can knock off Hilliard Davidson who was the #6 seed in Region 3 last year with a 9-1 record. Games against Lakota East, Anderson, Glen Este, and Winton Woods provide Mason the opportunity for their second home playoff game in two years.

Prediction:
10-0: 1-3 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 4-7 seed
7-3: 7-10 seed


Huber Heights Wayne
Wayne suffered a major blow to their chances of a home playoff game this season with their 21-14 loss to Elder Saturday, but still is a major contender for a playoff spot in Region 4. In 2003, Wayne lost its opener to Lakota East, but rallied for 9 consecutive wins to finish 6th in Region 4. Wayne should be considered the favorite in the rest of their games, given that they play their chief rival Centerville at home this season.

Prediction:
9-1: 4-6 seed
8-2: 6-8 seed
7-3: No playoffs


Lakota West
Lakota West missed a major opportunity for Harbin points in week 1, falling to Mason 33-22 at Yaeger Stadium. Lakota West now has little margin for error, as they must finish 8-1 in their last nine games to put them on solid ground for a playoff birth. That is a tall order, as West has road games looming against Winton Woods, Anderson, Princeton, and finally Lakota East to end the season. Lakota West does not play Colerain this year, which increases their playoff chances, as Colerain has outscored Lakota West 169-27 in the past three seasons.

Prediction:
9-1: 4-5
8-2: 5-8
7-3: 9-11


Princeton
Princeton struggled offensively Thursday night to a 7-0 victory over D-II McNicholas to start the season. They must increase their offensive output soon as they host Centerville, Lakota East, and Colerain all in September. Each Princeton victory will bring the Vikings significant Harbin points, but Princeton might struggle to get the seven wins they probably need to make a run at the playoffs.

Prediction:
10-0: 1-2 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 3-6 seed
7-3: 6-9 seed
6-4: No playoffs

COLERAIN FANS, LET NOT YOUR HEARTS BE TROUBLED

Colerain fans, I have heard the cries of gloom and doom wondering if a Colerain loss to Tyler Lee, Texas would eliminate Colerain from the playoffs. Such concern is unfounded! I took the liberty of calculating how many harbin points Colerain has gotten from it's GMC opponents and the non-conference opponent that gave Colerain the fewest harbin points over the past 3 seasons, and in parenthesis listed where they would have finished that year in Region 4:

2004: GMC Opponents + Anderson (5-5)
Colerain: 26.05 points (6th place)

2003: GMC Oppents + Hughes (5-5)
Colerain: 25.3030 points (6th place)

2002: GMC Oppents + Hughes (3-7)
St. Xavier 24.4092 (8th place)
Colerain: 24.4000 (9th place)


If Colerain beats Highlands, Colerain will be in good shape for the playoffs. Highlands will have at least 7 wins, compared to Hughes' 3 wins in 2003. Colerain still controls their own destiny, and would likely host a playoff game if Colerain goes 9-1.

The Bottom Line:
Colerain (9-1): Home playoff game
Colerain (8-2): Road playoff game
Colerain (7-3): No playoffs

JOE HARBIN'S WEEK 1 HARBIN PREDICTIONS:

1. St. Xavier
2. Moeller
3. Centerville
4. Elder
5. Lakota East
6. Colerain
7. Wayne
8. Mason

Week 1 Harbin Analysis

Week 1 of the 2005 high school football season provided some local teams with much needed Harbin points down the road, while leaving other teams wondering if they have put themselves behind the preverbial 8-ball this early in the season.

While it is far too early to speculate on specific playoff implications of this weekend's games, we do have an idea of some of the teams that will likely be in the playoff hunt later in the season. Each year there are roughly 15 teams in Region 4 with legitimate chances to make the playoffs. I will detail the top 5 teams each week that had the most important Harbin wins of the week and list the teams that helped themselves and hurt themselves that week.

1. Elder: Their 21-14 victory over Huber Heights Wayne Saturday night was arguably the biggest win in Region 4 this week. Wayne is the #1 team in Dayton this year, and likely to finish the season 9-1 or 8-2, depending on their match-up with Centerville later in the season. Elder has earned 6.0 L1 points and will likely earn either 47 or 53 L2 points with this victory.

1. St. Xavier: With their 7-0 shut-out of Colerain on Saturday, St. Xavier surprised many people and likely grabbed the #1 spot in Cincinnati polls, but more importantly, they will gain a boatload of Harbin points from Colerain. Colerain will likely go 8-2 or 9-1, depending on their game against Tyler Lee, Texas in Columbus in 2 weeks. Consequently, St. Xavier will likely earn either 47 or 53 L2 points from this victory.

3. Moeller: By defeating Withrow this Saturday, Moeller will pick up many Harbin points down the road. Withrow should be the favorite in the rest of their games, with a key game against McNick to end the year. Moeller has earned 6.0 L1 points and will likely earn either 47 or 53 L2 points with this victory depending on the result of the Withrow-McNick game in week 10. Moeller will pick up between 4.5 and 5.0 Harbin points from Withrow.

4. Oak Hills: Their 25-22 victory over Anderson was a huge Harbin victory for Oak Hills. Anderson will likely win at least 6 games this year, giving Oak Hills 6.0 L1 points and around 34 L2 points. Oak Hills plays Princeton, Lakota West, Lakota East, Elder, and Colerain this year. If Oak Hills wins 2 of those 5 games, as well as the rest of their games, they will likely be a major contender for one of the final few playoff spots.

5. Lakota East: Their 31-9 win over Lebanon has given them 6 L1 points will likely provide them with over 33 L2 points when all is said and done this season, assuming Lebanon goes 6-4 or better. If Lakota East beats Glen Este next week, they will definitely be in the playoffs at 9-1, and have a legitimate shot at getting in at 8-2. This shows the importance of playing (and defeating) good teams in the nonconference schedule, which is the only reason Lakota East missed the playoffs last year at 9-1.