BATTLE FOR THE #4 SEED: COLERAIN

Despite being lower in the week 9 Harbins and lower in my projections, Colerain has a chance of overtaking both Lakota East and Glen Este to claim the #4 seed in Region 4, assuming a Moeller loss. I realize these projection will make your head spin, because they made my head spin, and I came up with them. I think they’re right, and hopefully one of them will come to fruition Friday night and prove to be correct.

COLERAIN #4 SEED:

SCENARIO: Robert E. Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas) OR Hamilton over Fairfield, AND ALL OF THE FOLLOWING (Dixie Heights over Ryle, Withrow over McNicholas, & Mason over Winton Woods)

4. Colerain 26.7141
5. Glen Este 26.4500
6. Lakota East 26.3500

COLERAIN #5 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Tyler Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas), Fairfield over Hamilton, & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 2: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Fairfield over Hamilton & 2 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 3: Lakota West over Lakota East, Tyler Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas), & Hamilton over Fairfield

SCENARIO 4: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Hamilton over Fairfield & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 5: Lakota East over Lakota West, Highlands over CovCath, & Tyler Lee over Mesquite) & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, or Milford over Sycamore

SCENARIO 6: Lakota East over Lakota West, Highlands over CovCath, Mesquite over Tyler Lee & 2 OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, or Milford over Sycamore

SCENARIO 7: Lakota East over Lakota West, CovCath over Highlands, Mesquite over Tyler Lee & ALL OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, & Milford over Sycamore

COLERAIN #7 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Fairfield over Hamilton, AND 4 OF THE FOLLOWING: Chaminade-Julienne, LaSalle over Woodward, Sidney over Wayne, Trotwood-Madison over Fairborn, AND Miamisburg over Lebanon.

OTHERWISE, COLERAIN WOULD BE THE #6 SEED.

Bottom Line: Scenarios exist for Colerain to finish anywhere from the #4 seed to the #8 seed (Colerain would drop one seed in all the above scenarios if Moeller beats St. Xavier this Friday). I’ll put it bluntly for those of you who don’t feel like digesting all those scenarios.

• For Colerain to get a home game, Moeller has to lose to St. Xavier, and a combination of 2 teams that either Glen Este has beaten or Colerain has beaten must have results that differ from my Base Scenario that both benefit Colerain & hurt Glen Este for Colerain to finish #4.
• For Colerain to overtake Lakota East, either Lakota East has to lose, or Tyler Lee has to upset Mesquite, or Winton Woods has to knock off Mason with everything else remaining constant. Which on week 10 never happens ;-)

My fearless prediction: Colerain will finish with the #6 seed.

I may get to Northmont, Moeller, Mason, and LaSalle later this week. I’ve gotta study.