CONGRATULATIONS TO ST. XAVIER

With their 22-0 win today over Cleveland St. Ignatius, St. Xavier has clinched the #1 seed in the Region 4 playoffs for the second consecutive season. Congratulations.

MOELLER: #9 OR #1?????

Moeller finds themselves in probably one of the most amazing situations in the history of the Harbins. Here is the low-down on Moeller.

• If Moeller goes 0-2 to end the year, they will probably make the playoffs with the #8 seed, but could conceivebly find themselves at #9 if LaSalle and Mason get enough help in the form of Level 2 points.
• If Moeller goes 1-1 to end the year, they will host a first round playoff game, probably with the #3 or #4 seed
• If Moeller goes 2-0 to end the year, they will have around 36 Harbin points, and either the #1 or #2 seed in the region. Moeller would finish #2 if St. Xavier beat St. Ignatius on Saturday. If St. Xavier lost to St. Ignatius, them Moeller and St. Xavier would be neck and neck for the #1 spot.

There you have it. Moeller controls their own destiny.

MID-WEEK 9 HARBIN PROJECTIONS

With a few games left to input into my spreadsheet for tonight, and with the Saturday games left to input, here are my mid-week 9 projections.

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.2670
2	WAYNE	9-1	32.4500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.1000
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	26.4500
5	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
6	COLERAIN	9-1	26.1081
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	25.5000
8	MOELLER	6-4	25.2187
9	MASON	8-2	24.1500
10	LASALLE	8-2	23.2874
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

GAMES OF IMPORTANCE

Check back here tomorrow afternoon to see which week 9 games involving teams both in, and out of the playoff hunt, will determine where teams are seeded, and which teams will be left out of the playoffs.

CLAYTON NORTHMONT

Clayton Northmont must win one of its final two games to make the playoffs in Region 4. If Northmont sweeps Wayne and Troy, they will be either the #2 or #3 seed in the Region, but if they lose to Wayne and beat Troy, they will be the #6 - #8 seed, depending on how Lakota East and Moeller fare in the week’s last two weeks. If Northmont loses to both Wayne and Troy, they have no chance at making the playoffs.

MOELLER

Moeller is in an amazing position after week 8. If Moeller wins out, they will be the #1 or #2 seed in Region 4, but if they lose out, they could possibly finish out of the playoffs. Never has a team had so much riding on their last two games. Moeller should really be rooting on the opponents that they have beaten this year and be rooting against teams that LaSalle and Mason have beaten if Moeller needs to slide in the playoffs at 6-4.

LASALLE

LaSalle is in a bad way after week 8. Since they will have a difficult time overtaking Moeller for the #8 spot, LaSalle needs to hold off Mason AND have either Lakota East or Colerain to lose once, or Northmont to lose twice to make the playoffs. Losing to Northmont without their starting quarterback isn’t what is keeping the Lancers on the outside looking in, rather games against Purcell-Marian (1-7) and Woodward (1-7) are what look to be dooming LaSalle.
MASON

Mason needs help to make the playoffs. Mason’s best chance at the playoffs would come from a week 10 Lakota West win over Lakota East. The accompanying Level 2 points would leapfrog Mason over LaSalle and the Lakota East loss would knock East out of the playoffs, freeing the #8 spot for Mason.

FAIRFIELD

Fairfield has no realistic chance at the playoffs. They are only still on my board because they would be the team to slide in the #8 spot if things got nuts in the last two weeks and many of the teams needing to win to make the playoffs would end up losing. Fairfield would make it if Lakota East lost to Lakota West, Northmont lost to Wayne and Troy, AND Mason lost to Winton Woods. I don’t think that would happen, but if it did, then Fairfield, by default, would make the playoffs.

COLERAIN, GLEN ESTE, LAKOTA EAST

Due to school and work obligations I haven't had the time to make specific tables for the remainder of the playoff teams, but did do some calculations to support my statements.

COLERAIN

Colerain is in great shape to make the playoffs. I foresee no scenario that would have Colerain on the sidelines in week 11. Colerain has a good chance at being the #4 seed and Colerain fans’ hearts should not be troubled.

GLEN ESTE

Glen Este got a huge win Friday night over Winton Woods that nearly clinched a playoff birth. At 9-1, Glen Este will be fighting with Colerain for the #5 seed, but if Glen Este falls to Harrison in week 10, they will likely be the #7 seed, but less than 1.0000 points ahead of #9 LaSalle.

LAKOTA EAST

Lakota East must win out and finish 8-2 to make the playoffs. After two early losses, they have been playing playoff games for most of the season, so they should be accustomed to the pressure. If Lakota East wins out, they will likely be the #6 seed with the possibility to move up if Colerain and/or Glen Este don’t get as much Level 2 points as expected.

CENTERVILLE

Centerville has to win one of their last two games to clinch a home playoff game in the first round of the playoffs. If Centerville goes 9-1, they will be the #3 seed if Wayne beats Northmont. If Centerville finished 9-1 and Northmont beats Wayne, Centerville will be .1000 points behind Northmont for the #2 spot and could very easily jump over Northmont for the #2 spot. If Centerville loses to Kettering Fairmont in week 9, they will be the #3 seed with 28.9000 points. If Centerville beats Fairmont, but loses to Springfield North, they will be the #3 seed with 27.7500 points. If Centerville loses both remaining games, they will be the #7 seed with 25.9500 points.

CENTERVILLE (9-1) (Wayne over Northmont])

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Wayne (9-1) 33.0000
3. Centerville (9-1) 30.7000
4. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
5. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
6. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
7. Northmont (8-2) 26.1000
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

CENTERVILLE (9-1) (Northmont over Wayne)

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Northmont (9-1) 31.4000
3. Centerville (9-1) 31.3000
4. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
5. Wayne (8-2) 27.3500
6. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
7. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

CENTERVILLE (8-2) (Loss to Kettering Fairmont)

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Wayne (9-1) 33.6000
3. Centerville (8-2) 28.9000
4. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
5. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
6. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
7. Northmont (8-2) 26.1000
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

CENTERVILLE (8-2) (Loss to Springfield North)

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Wayne (9-1) 33.6000
3. Centerville (8-2) 27.7500
4. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
5. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
6. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
7. Northmont (8-2) 26.1000
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

CENTERVILLE (7-3)

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Wayne (9-1) 34.2000
3. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
4. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
5. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
6. Northmont (8-2) 26.1000
7. Centerville (7-3) 25.9500
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

WAYNE

Huber Heights Wayne will earn the #2 seed in Region 4 if they defeat Clayton Northmont this week and take care of Sidney in their regular season finale. This will give them 33.0000 Harbin points and a 2.3000 Harbin point lead over projected #3 seed, Centerville @ 31.3000. If Wayne loses to Northmont, they will have 27.3500 Harbin points, which would put them in the #5 seed, .0712 points behind #4 Colerain and .3000 points above #6 Glen Este.

WAYNE (9-1)

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	43.8459
2	WAYNE	9-1	33.0000
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.7000
4	COLERAIN	9-1	27.4212
5	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
6	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	26.1000
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.6126
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.8934
10	MASON	8-2	23.6000
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

WAYNE (8-2)

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	43.8459
2	NORTHMONT	9-1	31.4000
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	31.3000
4	COLERAIN	9-1	27.4212
5	WAYNE	8-2	27.3500
6	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
7	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.6126
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.8934
10	MASON	8-2	23.6000
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

NOTE ON PROJECTIONS

Throughout the week, I will be doing a scenario or two for each team in the last two weeks. This is the base scenario that I am using for my projections, unless otherwise noted.

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	43.8459
2	WAYNE	9-1	33.0000
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	31.3000
4	COLERAIN	9-1	27.4212
5	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
6	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	26.1000
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.6126
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.8934
10	MASON	8-2	23.6000
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

1. St. Xavier: Wins over Cleveland St. Ignatius and Moeller
2. Wayne: Wins over Northmont and Sidney
3. Centerville: Wins over Kettering Fairmont and Springfield North
4. Colerain: Wins over Middletown and Oak Hills
5. Glen Este: Wins over Amelia and Harrison
6. Lakota East: Wins over Sycamore and Lakota West
7. Northmont: Loss to Wayne, Win over Troy
8. Moeller: Losses to Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier
9. LaSalle: Wins over Purcell-Marian and Woodward
10. Mason: Wins over Harrison and Winton Woods
11. Fairfield: Wins over Milford and Hamilton

ST. XAVIER

St. Xavier is the class of Region 4. They have dominated every opponent since winning 24-21 at Indianapolis Cathedral. St. Xavier has clinched a home game in the first round of the playoffs and can clinch the #1 seed with any of the following: a St. Xavier win this week vs. Cleveland St. Ignatius, a Moeller loss to Lakewood St. Edward, or a St. Xavier win over Moeller in week 10.

UPDATES THIS WEEK

Throughout the week, I'll go team-by-team stating where they could finish if certain scenarios come to fruition. Also, as you notice the little disparity in Harbin points between teams, such as Glen Este and Colerain, for example, these projections are subject to change, and with two weeks left in the season, there are many variables left that could change the seedings.

Hopefully your team is in the top 8, and if they're not, I'll see if I can come up with a scenario that'll put them there.

JK

POST-WEEK 8 HARBINS

These are my projections after week 8. I was very impressed with Wayne last week, so I changed my prediction next week to a Wayne win over Northmont. I also changed a Xenia win over Springfield South in week 10 to a Xenia loss.

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	43.8459
2	WAYNE	9-1	33.0000
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	31.3000
4	COLERAIN	9-1	27.4212
5	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
6	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	26.1000
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.6126
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.8934
10	MASON	8-2	23.6000
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000