MOELLER (6-3)

While Moeller (6-2) has virtually guaranteed a playoff spot, even with a loss in Week 10 to St. Xavier, their final seeding is far from determined, as Moeller is projected to finish with 24.4042 Harbin points and could finish anywhere from 5th to 9th (See Elder post).

Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Harrison (8-2 - 26.5000) with a Harrison loss, or the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Talawanda, Glen Este, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Oak Hills, Northwest, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses... unless otherwise noted (Cathedral & East Central have already completed a 10-game schedules.
Note: Loveland plays Milford. Harrison has beaten both D-I teams.

• Talawanda and Glen Este losses AND two (2) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward
• Talawanda or Glen Este losses AND three (3) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward

Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Princeton (8-2 - 25.6000) with a Princeton loss, or the following scenario. The base scenario includes Centerville, Lakota West, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Western Hills, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses.
Note: Hamilton plays Fairfield and Sycamore plays Mason. Princeton has beaten all four (4) D-I teams.
*A Centerville loss, and wins from either Western Hills or Mason are unlikely and will not be included in scenarios .

• A Lakota West loss AND a Lakewood St. Edward win. (A Lakota West loss with Findlay win would keep Princeton over Moeller by 0.0211 Harbin points)

Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Northmont (7-3 - 24.5566) with a Northmont loss, or the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Sidney, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Chaminade-Julienne, Miamisburg, Troy, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses.
Note: Butler plays Trotwood-Madison. Northmont has beaten both D-II teams.

• A Sidney loss OR one (1) win from Mason, Findlay, or St. Edward
• A Sidney win AND one (1) win from Mason, Findlay, or St. Edward.
• A Sidney win and one (1) win from C-J, Miamisburg, or Troy AND two (2) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward.

Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a lower seed than Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) with the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Lakota West, and Charlotte Independence wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine losses.
*Mason and Oak Hills victories are highly unlikely and will not be included in scenarios.

• Brother Rice and LaSalle losses AND either a Covington Catholic or Cleveland Benedictine win
• A Brother Rice or LaSalle loss AND both a Covington Catholic and Cleveland Benedictine win

CONCLUSION:

Moeller will finish ahead of Harrison, Princeton, or Northmont, if any of those teams loses in week 10. Therefore Moeller could finish with the #5 seed with Harrison, Princeton, and Northmont losses.

*Please note that there are many possible scenarios for each team, and the scenarios listed below are not all-inclusive. To include all scenarios would be mind-numbing for you... and especially for me.

Moeller could also finish with the #5 seed with a Harrison loss, and coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would lift Moeller over both Princeton and Northmont

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over both Princeton and Northmont

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with other results Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Northmont, but not over Princeton.

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with other results Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Princeton, but not over Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Northmont, but not over Princeton.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Princeton, but not over Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below both Princeton and Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #8 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below both Princeton and Northmont, but ahead of Elder.

Moeller could finish with the #8 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below Princeton, Northmont, and Elder.