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Saturday, September 17, 2005

WEEK 4 ANALYSIS

1. ST. XAVIER: Their rout of Westerville North once again proved that they are the class of Region 4. Westerville North should provide St. Xavier will a good supply of Harbin points, and with their victories over Colerrain, Cathedral, and DeSales, St. Xavier is looking good for a home playoff game.

2. CENTERVILLE: This team just keeps winning. Their victories over Northmont and Fairfield will loom large later in the year, as both teams will likely win seven or more games. Centerville would be in the playoffs at 9-1 or 8-2, but most likely they'll finish at 10-0 and have a home playoff game. The most difficult game remaining for them comes in week 8 at Huber Hieghts Wayne.

3. COLERAIN: Colerain will not lose the rest of the year. At 9-1, Colerain will easily qualify for the playoffs, and most likely will have a home game. Colerain will get their normal Harbin points from their GMC opponents, and their wins over Tyler Lee and Highlands will provide them substantial points by the season's end.

4. MOELLER: Moeller was upset Saturday night at Findlay, which hurt their chances for a home playoff game. Moeller still has a chance for a top-3 seed in Region 4, but they have less margin for error after tonight's game. If Moeller wins out, they WILL be a top-3 seed, but with games against St. Xavier, St. Edward, and at Elder, that will be a tall order. Moeller will be on the border of a home playoff game at 8-2, and will be on the road at 7-3.

5. NORTHMONT: Northmont will finish the season at 8-2 or 9-1 and qualify for the playoffs. Northmont finished 9-1 last year, and missed the playoffs. However, with their wins over LaSalle and Chaminade-Julienne, they will be in the running for a home playoff game if they finish 9-1.

6. GLEN ESTE: I'm not jumping off the Glen Este bandwagon yet. Their 10-0 win over Anderson will go a long way in their drive for a playoff birth. Glen Este will be in the playoffs at 10-0 or 9-1, but will be scoreboard watching in week 10 if they finish at 8-2.

7. HUBER HEIGHTS WAYNE: Wayne will make the playoffs at 8-2, but getting eight wins will be a difficult task with games against Centerville and Northmont in weeks 8 and 9, respectively. If Wayne splits those two games, and wins their other games, as they are forecasted to do, Wayne will be playing on the road in the first week in the playoffs. If Wayne finishes 9-1, they will have a chance at a home playoff game.

8. WITHROW:
Withrow will finish the season at 9-1 or 8-2, but the real question will be if those wins will be enough to qualify for a playoff spot in their first week in Division 1. Fortunately for Withrow, most of the contenders in Region 4 have gotten off to slow starts to the season. Withrow is going to be hurt Harbin-wise with their wins over Western Hills, Aiken, and Woodward, but could get loads of Harbin points if they beat Mt. Healthy. If Withrow beats Mt. Healthy in week 6, they could slide into the playoffs, but if they lose, their playoff hopes are done.

9. ELDER:
Elder saw many Harbin points drive back to Lakewood Saturday night, as they fell to St. Edward at home to fall to 2-2. Elder must finish at 7-3 to remain in the playoff picture, because at 6-4, with a win over Western Hills, Elder won't make the playoffs. Elder still has games against St. Xavier, Moeller, Bishop Chatard, LaSalle, and Benedictine. If Elder can finish the season 5-1 in their last six games, they definitely belong in the playoffs.

BEST OF THE REST
10. Fairfield
11. LaSalle
12. Oak Hills