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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

ELDER - PART II

While Elder fans may be focused on the teams they need to overtake, Elder also needs to be wary of Huber Heights Wayne, projected to finish 10th with 22.0500 Harbin points.

In order to stay ahead of HH Wayne, Elder needs to get Level 2 help from the opponents they have already beaten this season, while at the same time, rooting against HH Wayne getting Level 2 help from their previous opponents. The base scenario includes Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, Northmont, and Springfield North victories, with Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, Cleveland Benedictine, Fairfield, Springfield South, and Kettering Fairmont losses.... unless otherwise noted below.
* Springfield South (D-II) plays Springfield North (D-I). Also, Xenia (D-I) plays Beavercreek (D-I). HH Wayne has beaten all four (4) teams.
Note: Oak Hills (Colerain) and Kettering Fairmont (Centerville) victories are unlikely, and will not be included in scenarios.

The following scenarios will likely determine whether Elder (7-3) finishes ahead of Huber Heights Wayne (7-3). Please note that a Clayton Northmont loss would benefit Elder in two (2) ways, as it would open a playoff spot, and reduce HH Wayne's total Harbin points by 0.5500.

  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.6082]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5582]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 1.1582]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 1.1082]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.0082]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0418]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5582]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5082]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Wayne + 0.0103]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0603]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5397]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.4897]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5567]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5067]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 1.1067]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 1.0567]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win and S. North over S. South. [Wayne + 0.0433]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0933]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5067]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.4567]

posted by Joe Kennedy at 10:12 PM

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