RADIO APPEARANCE

For additional information concerning my Region 4 Harbin Projections, please listen to my guest appearance on the Prep Sports Radio Network's broadcast of the Cleveland Benedictine v. Elder game Saturday night beginning at 7:00, airing on AM 740, Sacred Heart Radio.

HARRISON 24, GLEN ESTE 21

Harrison's Thursday night victory kept their hopes alive for a Region 4 playoff spot, while effectively eliminating Glen Este from contention. Next week, Harrison plays Anderson at Paul Brown Stadium with their playoff hopes on the line. If Harrison defeats Anderson (and snaps their 5-game series losing streak), they will likely play Centerville in the first round of the playoffs.

If Harrison loses to Anderson, they are very likely out of playoff contention, since they will have been leapfrogged by both Elder and Huber Heights Wayne and likely be relegated to the #10 position in Region 4.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Harrison defeats Anderson and finishes with the #5 seed.

CENTERVILLE 42, SPRINGFIELD SOUTH 0

Centerville's 42-point pasting of South tonight virtually guaranteed Centerville a Region 4 playoff spot. Barring a Centerville loss, coupled with a host of upsets in other games, Centerville will be playing in week 11.

Almost as importantly, Centerville's win tonight, along with Princeton's loss, puts Centerville in prime position to land the #4 seed and a first round home playoff game. While projected to beat out Harrison (8-2) for the #4 seed by 0.4000 Harbin points, Centerville appears to have the inside track for the #4 seed. The key game for Centerville and Harrison fans to watch will be Northwest v. Ross. A Ross win will put Centerville in line for the #4 seed, while conversely, a Northwest win will put Harrison in the driver's seat.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Centerville will be the #4 seed in Region 4.

SYCAMORE 23, LAKOTA WEST 7

Sycamore's win tonight likely ensures that Sycamore will earn the #3 seed in Region 4 with a week 10 win against Middletown. As stated in the previous post, Sycamore will not overtake Colerain for the #2 seed, and Princeton's loss tonight ensures that Sycamore will finish no lower than #3 with a win next week.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Sycamore will finish with the #3 seed in Region 4.

COLERAIN 35, HAMILTON 7

Colerain rolled through Hamilton Friday night, and will cruise to the #2 seed in Region 4 with a win over Oak Hills in Week 10. Since Colerain and Sycamore have six (6) common opponents on their schedule, Sycamore will not be able to overtake Colerain for the #2 seed without a Colerain loss.

Colerain would not surpass St. Xavier for the #1 seed, even if St. Xavier would lose their final two games.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Colerain will be the #2 seed.

LAKOTA EAST 35, PRINCETON 21

Tonight's big stunner was Lakota East's 35-21 victory at Princeton. While this game has cost Princeton a first round home game, it has not cost them a playoff spot. With a win in their final game against Middletown, Princeton will finish with a projected 25.0000 Harbin points, which will easily qualify them for the playoffs.

Princeton still controls their own playoff destiny, but will definitely be on the road in the first round of the playoffs... assuming they take care of business against Middletown.

At 4-5, Lakota East is out of playoff contention.

MID-WEEK 9 REGION 4 PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS (10/19/2007)

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1	ST. XAVIER (8-0)	10-0	44.8104
2	COLERAIN (9-0)	10-0	32.1605
3	SYCAMORE (8-1)	9-1	29.8500
4	CENTERVILLE (7-2)	8-2	26.9000
5	HARRISON (7-2)	8-2	26.5000
6	PRINCETON (7-2)	8-2	25.0000
7	NORTHMONT (6-3)	7-3	24.5566
8	MOELLER (5-2)	6-3	24.4042
9	ELDER (5-3)	7-3	22.6582
10	HH WAYNE (7-2)	8-2	22.0500
11	LASALLE (4-5)	5-5	20.2727
12	GLEN ESTE (5-4)	6-4	20.0500

I'M BACK

After eight weeks spent analyzing the Region 4 Harbins, I'm back with my first projections for the 2007 season.

As always, please note that these are projections, and as we've already seen this year, just one upset could have wide-ranging effects on the Region 4 outlook.

11. HARRISON

Harrison, currently 6-2, is projected to finish 7-3, with a loss to Glen Este in week 9. Despite being projected to finish 11th in Region 4, Harrison actually controls their own playoff destiny, given the strength of their final two opponents, Glen Este and Anderson. If Harrison defeats both Glen Este and Anderson, they project to finish with 26.5000 Harbin points, which would place them in contention with Centerville and LaSalle for the #5 seed. However, with a loss to either Glen Este or Anderson, Harrison is highly unlikely to qualify for the Region 4 playoffs, as they would need to leapfrog three (3) teams to qualify.

8-2 (Win last two games): 26.5000 --> First Round Road Game --> Likely #5 or #6 seed
7-3 (Loss one of last two): 22.3500 --> Out of Playoffs

10. ELDER

Elder is currently projected to finish 7-3 and finish 10th in Region 4. In order to qualify for the playoffs, Elder will need significant help in the form of losses from the teams currently projected ahead of them in the final Region 4 standings. Due to the significant difference between Moeller, projected 8th with 24.3076 Harbin points and Elder, projected 10th with 22.6582, it does not appear that Elder can overtake Moeller purely with changes to the projected Level 2 Harbin points over the last two weeks.

Therefore, Elder fans should be rooting for two (2) the following four (4) scenarios to come to fruition in order to put their team squarely on the bubble for qualification in the Region 4 Playoffs:

1. Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
2. Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9) or Piqua over Northmont (Week 10)
3. Lakewood St. Edward over Moeller (Week 9) & St. Xavier over Moeller (Week 10)

4a. Winton Woods over Glen Este (Week 10 - If Glen Este defeats Harrison in Week 9)
4b. Anderson over Harrison (Week 10 - If Harrison defeats Glen Este in Week 9)

Elder has their work cut out for them from a Harbin prospective over the last two weeks, and even with substantial help, as listed above, could find themselves on the outside looking in.

9. GLEN ESTE

Glen Este (5-3) must win its last two games against Harrison and Winton Woods to put themselves in a position where they are on the bubble for a Region 4 playoff birth.

Glen Este is projected at 7-3 to finish 9th in Region 4, only 0.2467 behind Moeller at 6-3 for the 8th and final playoff spot. Given the number of games left in the season that comprise the Level 2 Harbin points, Glen Este has a very legitimate chance of overtaking a 6-3 Moeller team, if Glen Este finishes 7-3.

Glen Este can clinch a playoff spot with a 7-3 record if any of the following realistic scenarios occur:

• Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
  
• Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9) or Piqua over Northmont (Week 10)
• Lakewood St. Edward over Moeller (Week 9) & St. Xavier over Moeller (Week 10)
  

8. MOELLER

Moeller (5-2) enters its final two games versus Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier needing one (1) win to put them squarely on the bubble for a Region 4 playoff birth.

With a win over Lakewood St. Edward, Moeller projects to finish 8th in Region 4 by 0.2467 over a Glen Este team projected to finish 7-3 with wins over Harrison and Winton Woods to end their season. If Harrison defeats Glen Este, then defeats Anderson in Week 10, this would take Glen Este out of the playoff picture, but would also leapfrog Harrison into the playoffs, and leave Moeller and Northmont to contend for the #8 seed.

Moeller fans should root for any of the following realistic scenarios to likely clinch Region 4 playoff qualification with a 6-3 record:

• Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
• Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9)
• Piqua over Northmont (Week 9)
• Winton Woods over Glen Este (Week 10 - If Glen Este defeats Harrison in Week 9)
• Anderson over Harrison (Week 10 - If Harrison defeats Glen Este in Week 9)

If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier, they will qualify as the #3 seed in Region 4 and host a First Round Home Game.

7. NORTHMONT

Clayton Northmont is 5-3 and must win their final two games against Trotwood-Madison and Piqua in order to put themselves in good position to qualify for the Region 4 playoffs. Winning these two games would put Northmont in very good position for a playoff birth, but given the close proximity of Moeller, and the winner of Thursday night's Glen Este v. Harrison match-up, Northmont is not in position to control their own destiny at this point.

7-3 (Win last two games): 24.6071 --> Likely First Round Road Playoff Game --> #7 or #8 Seed
6-4 (Loss v. Trotwood): 20.0672 --> Out of Playoff Contention
6-4 (Loss v. Piqua): 19.5116 --> Out of Playoff Contention

6. LASALLE

At 4-4, LaSalle must win its last two games against Columbus St. Francis De Sales and Dayton Colonel White to finish 6-4 and qualify for the Region 4 playoffs. At 6-4, LaSalle likely will be either the #5 or #6 seed, depending on how their Level 2 Harbin points compare with Centerville.

6-4 (Win last two games): 26.0289 --> First Round Road Game --> Likely #5 or #6
5-5 (Loss v. Cols De Sales): 20.2727 --> Out of Playoff Contention

5. CENTERVILLE

After defeating Huber Heights Wayne in overtime in Week 8, Centerville will clinch a playoff birth by winning its final two games against Springfield South (1-7) and Kettering Fairmont (3-5). Centerville will likely finish either 5th or 6th in Region 4 with an 8-2 record but could slide up to the #4 spot with either a Sycamore or Princeton loss.

Note: Centerville will be in a very close race with LaSalle for the #5 spot if both teams win their last two games, as they are projected to be separated by less than 0.3 Harbin points.

8-2 (Win last two games): 26.3000 --> Clinch Playoff Spot --> Likely #5 or #6 seed
7-3 (Loss v. K. Fairmont): 23.3500 --> Likely on Outside Looking In --> Need Help

4. PRINCETON

Princeton has rolled through GMC competition this year, and if they take care of business against Lakota East and Middletown to end the season, they will likely finish fourth in the Region 4 final standings.

Note: If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier in weeks 9 and 10, then Moeller would surpass Sycamore and Princeton, and knock Princeton (9-1) down to the #5 seed

9-1 (Win last two games): 27.4000 --> Likely #4 seed
8-2 (Loss v. Lakota East): 25.0000 --> First Round Road Game
8-2 (Loss v. Middletown): 23.8000 --> Possibly Out of Playoffs - Squarely on Bubble
7-3 (Lose last two games) 21.4000 --> Out of Playoff Contention

3. SYCAMORE

Sycamore controls their own destiny for the Region 4 playoffs with very winnable games against Lakota West and Mason to close their season. Sycamore can likely afford a loss against against Lakota West and still qualify with the #6 or #7 seed, but they would be best served by winning out and not dealing with the uncertainty that an 8-2 season would bring. Sycamore will clinch a playoff birth with a win over Lakota West this Friday as listed below.

Note: If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier in weeks 9 and 10, then Moeller would surpass Sycamore and Princeton, and knock Sycamore (9-1) down to the #4 seed

9-1 (Win last two games): 28.6500 --> First Round Home Game - Likely #3 Seed
8-2 (Loss v. Lakota West): 25.0500 --> First Round Road Game
8-2 (Loss v. Mason): 26.8500 --> Potential First Round Home Game --> Squarely on Bubble

2. COLERAIN

Colerain will finish 10-0 with the #2 seed in Region 4. They do not have enough Harbin points to overtake St. Xavier (even @ 8-2). They will also not lose their lead over Sycamore (9-1), since both teams will have defeated six (6) common GMC opponents by the end of the season. (Mason, Middletown, Fairfield, Lakota West, Lakota East, and Oak Hills).

Colerain has not lost a GMC game this millennium, so we're not even going there with the projections.

1. ST. XAVIER

St. Xavier has clinched the #1 seed in Region 4, and likely will dwarf the other Region 4 contenders in total Harbin points, as they are on pace for a 10-0 season with 44.7583 points.

10-0 (Win last 2 games): 44.7583 points
9-1 (Loss to St. Ignatius): 39.2625 points
9-1 (Loss to Moeller): 40.4624 points
8-2 (Lose last 2 games): 34.9646 points

RADIO APPEARANCE

I will be on with the guys from The Prep Sports Radio Network broadcasting on Sacred Heart Radio (740 AM) during the Cleveland Benedictine vs. Elder game on Saturday, October 20, 2007.

By Saturday, I will have Friday's results updated into my projections and will likely have a good sense of which teams are going to qualify for the playoffs, and where they're likely to be seeded.

2007 WEEK 9 REGION 4 PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	44.7583
2	COLERAIN	10-0	31.5289
3	SYCAMORE	9-1	28.6500
4	PRINCETON	9-1	27.4000
5	CENTERVILLE	8-2	26.3000
6	LASALLE	6-4	26.0289
7	NORTHMONT	7-3	24.6071
8	MOELLER	6-3	24.3467
9	GLEN ESTE	7-3	24.1000
10	ELDER	7-3	22.6582
11	HARRISON	7-3	22.3500
12	HH WAYNE	8-2	21.5000