HOOVER (ALA) FORFEITS – COLERAIN, SYCAMORE, & MOELLER IMPACT

In week 2, Colerain defeated Hoover (Alabama) in the Herbstreit Challenge at Nippert Stadium. Since then, Hoover has rebounded for six consecutive wins to bring their record to (6-1). On Wednesday, October 24, 2007, The Birmingham News reported that Hoover would have to forfeit four (4) games for using an ineligible player, thus dropping their record to (2-5).

These forfeitures lower Colerain’s projected final Harbin points from 32.7395 down to 30.2132 Harbin points. This development opens the door for Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) to seriously challenge for the #2 seed in Region 4. It also gives Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) the inside track for the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier in week 10.

Colerain (10-0: 30.2132) would finish with a higher seed than Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Wayne, Hoover, and Clarke Road wins, with Middletown, Mason, Findlay, and Lakewood St. Edward losses… unless otherwise noted below.

*Note: Indianapolis Cathedral has already completed a ten (10) game seaso
*Note: Both Colerain and Moeller have defeated Mason, so the Mason result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another.

*Note: Hamilton plays Fairfield and Lakota West plays Lakota East. Colerain has defeated all four (4) of these D-I teams, so the results of their games will not affect Colerain’s final Harbin point total.

• One (1) loss from either Brother Rice or LaSalle AND a Middletown win
• Losses from both Brother Rice and LaSalle

Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) would finish with a higher seed than Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Withrow, Harrison, and Springboro wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Fairfield, Oak Hills, and Middletown losses.

*Note: Indianapolis Cathedral has already completed a ten (10) game season

*Note: Both Sycamore and Moeller have defeated Mason, so the Mason result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another.

*Note: Lakota West plays Lakota East. Sycamore has defeated both of these D-I teams, so the result of their game will not affect Sycamore’s final Harbin point total.

• Two wins combined from Fairfield, Oak Hills, and Middletown
• One (1) loss from either Brother Rice or LaSalle AND one win from Fairfield, Oak Hills, or Middletown
• Losses from both Brother Rice and LaSalle

Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) would finish with a higher seed than Colerain (10-0: 30.2132) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Withrow, Harrison, Springboro, Wayne, Hoover, and Clarke Road wins, with Mason, Middletown, Fairfield, and Oak Hills losses… unless otherwise noted.

*Note: Lakota West plays Lakota East. Both Colerain and Sycamore have beaten these D-I teams, so this result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another

*Note: Fairfield plays Hamilton. Colerain has defeated both Fairfield and Hamilton, while Sycamore has only defeated Fairfield. If Fairfield defeats Hamilton, this will increase Sycamore’s projected Harbin points by 0.6000, while keeping Colerain’s projected Harbin points the same.

• One win from Fairfield or Oak Hills, OR one loss from Wayne, Hoover, or Clarke Road – with all other projections remaining constant

CONCLUSION:

Moeller will likely clinch the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier. Colerain would have the inside track for the #3 seed, but given their very close proximity to Sycamore, they could drop to the #4 seed with results of other games, as listed above.

With a Moeller loss, Colerain would have the inside track for the #2 seed, but again, given their close very proximity to Sycamore, they could drop to the #3 seed with results of other games, as listed above. Moeller would likely have a first round road game, with numerous scenarios detailing their projected finish in the “Moeller (6-3)” post from 10/23/2007.