POST-WEEK 2 HARBIN ANALYSIS
1. ST. XAVIER
St. Xavier has scored two big wins, not just based on the caliber of their opponents, but also the based on the amount of Harbin points those opponents will bring St. Xavier throughout the year. St. Xavier will be the perfect example of how scheduling, and defeating, quality opponents early in the season will lead to a first round home game in the playoffs. The St. Xavier - Moeller game in week 10 could be for the #1 seed in Region 4.
2. MOELLER
Moeller is also 2-0 early in the season, and will receive similar Harbin points from Withrow and CovCath that St. Xavier has earned from beating Colerain and Cathedral. While Withrow and CovCath aren't the powerhouses that Colerain and Cathedral are, they are great examples of Harbin Cows." A Harbin Cow is an opponent that will go 7-3, 8-2, or 9-1 and give the team(s) they lost to a ton of Harbin points throughout the year. Withrow and CovCath will both win around seven or eight games this year, and will propel Moeller into a top-4 seed in the Region 4 playoffs.
3. CLAYTON NORTHMONT
Clayton Northmont has began the 2005 season determined to avenge last year's season where they were knocked out of the playoff by the forfeiture of all of one of its' opponents wins. Northmont dominated CJ and smoked LaSalle at Lancer Stadium. Nortmont split games with Centerville (week 3) and Huber Heights Wayne (week 9) and avoid tripping up to another GWOC opponent throughout the season to guarantee a playoff birth. At 9-1, Northmont will definitely be in the playoffs, and will probably be in the top 4.
4. CENTERVILLE
Centerville has gotten off to a good start this year by defeating Fairfield and Princeton of the GMC to start 2-0. Both these teams figure to be around .500 this year, so they will be some help to Centerville's playoff hopes, but Centerville's playoff hopes hinge on their games against Northmont and Wayne. If Centerville splits those games, they should be in with no problem. At 10-0 last year, Centerville was the #2 seed in Region 4, and they could duplicate that seeding this year if they go perfect again.
5. GLEN ESTE
No, this is not a typo. Glen Este has gotten off to a great start and may turn out to be the class of the FAVC this year. Glen Este beat a struggling Ryle team to open the season then surprised most pundits when they defeated Lakota East 23-13 Friday. This win, coupled with possible future wins against McNick, Anderson, Mason, and Winton Woods spell great times Harbin-wise for Glen Este this year. However, Glen Este doesn't have the margin for error that some other teams have, as they have defeated Ryle, and will likely have wins over Amelia, Walnut Hills, and Harrison later in the year that won't help Glen Este much at all with the Harbins.
6. OAK HILLS
Oak Hills started the season in style with a 25-22 win over Anderson in week 1 before defeating Western Hills at Mt. St. Joe in week 2. With the parity throughout the GMC this year, Oak Hills figures to have a chance at racking up Harbin points throughout their GMC schedule. If Oak Hills can defeat Elder, for the first time at Betz Memorial Stadium, on Friday, they will be in absolutely spectacular shape for a playoff birth. Oak Hills could even make the playoffs at 8-2, as they did in 1999 with losses to Elder and Colerain. If Oak Hills wants to make the playoffs, they can't lose to non-Elder/Colerain opponents, and if they hope for a home game, they have to split with Elder and Colerain.
7. COLERAIN
Colerain showed no signs of struggle against Highlands on Saturday night. Colerain can virtually clinch a playoff birth this week with a win over Tyler Lee, Texas. If Colerain beats Tyler Lee, they will finish the season at no worse than 8-2, which will be good enough for a playoff birth. Colerain still has a chance at a top 4 seed with a win over Lee. Colerain would get loads of Harbin points from Lee and could finish up with the #3 seed if they go 9-1 as they did in 2002 when they finished 9-1 with an opening week loss to Moeller.
8. ELDER
While it is not panic time for Elder fans, it should be noted that Elder missed an opportunity for many Harbin points Saturday afternoon. The loss to Massillon Washington means that Elder needs to finish 6-2 to end the season to comfortably make the playoffs at 7-3. Elder's schedule makes this a difficult task, but the resilience they showed today coming almost all the way back from a 28-point defecit in the fourth quarter tells me that they are up to the challenge.
BEST OF THE REST
9. HUBER HEIGHTS WAYNE
10. LEBANON
11. WITHROW
12. PRINCETON
13. LASALLE
14. ANDERSON
15. MASON
16. LAKOTA EAST
17. LAKOTA WEST
18. HUGHES CENTER
19. FAIRFIELD
20. TROY
St. Xavier has scored two big wins, not just based on the caliber of their opponents, but also the based on the amount of Harbin points those opponents will bring St. Xavier throughout the year. St. Xavier will be the perfect example of how scheduling, and defeating, quality opponents early in the season will lead to a first round home game in the playoffs. The St. Xavier - Moeller game in week 10 could be for the #1 seed in Region 4.
2. MOELLER
Moeller is also 2-0 early in the season, and will receive similar Harbin points from Withrow and CovCath that St. Xavier has earned from beating Colerain and Cathedral. While Withrow and CovCath aren't the powerhouses that Colerain and Cathedral are, they are great examples of Harbin Cows." A Harbin Cow is an opponent that will go 7-3, 8-2, or 9-1 and give the team(s) they lost to a ton of Harbin points throughout the year. Withrow and CovCath will both win around seven or eight games this year, and will propel Moeller into a top-4 seed in the Region 4 playoffs.
3. CLAYTON NORTHMONT
Clayton Northmont has began the 2005 season determined to avenge last year's season where they were knocked out of the playoff by the forfeiture of all of one of its' opponents wins. Northmont dominated CJ and smoked LaSalle at Lancer Stadium. Nortmont split games with Centerville (week 3) and Huber Heights Wayne (week 9) and avoid tripping up to another GWOC opponent throughout the season to guarantee a playoff birth. At 9-1, Northmont will definitely be in the playoffs, and will probably be in the top 4.
4. CENTERVILLE
Centerville has gotten off to a good start this year by defeating Fairfield and Princeton of the GMC to start 2-0. Both these teams figure to be around .500 this year, so they will be some help to Centerville's playoff hopes, but Centerville's playoff hopes hinge on their games against Northmont and Wayne. If Centerville splits those games, they should be in with no problem. At 10-0 last year, Centerville was the #2 seed in Region 4, and they could duplicate that seeding this year if they go perfect again.
5. GLEN ESTE
No, this is not a typo. Glen Este has gotten off to a great start and may turn out to be the class of the FAVC this year. Glen Este beat a struggling Ryle team to open the season then surprised most pundits when they defeated Lakota East 23-13 Friday. This win, coupled with possible future wins against McNick, Anderson, Mason, and Winton Woods spell great times Harbin-wise for Glen Este this year. However, Glen Este doesn't have the margin for error that some other teams have, as they have defeated Ryle, and will likely have wins over Amelia, Walnut Hills, and Harrison later in the year that won't help Glen Este much at all with the Harbins.
6. OAK HILLS
Oak Hills started the season in style with a 25-22 win over Anderson in week 1 before defeating Western Hills at Mt. St. Joe in week 2. With the parity throughout the GMC this year, Oak Hills figures to have a chance at racking up Harbin points throughout their GMC schedule. If Oak Hills can defeat Elder, for the first time at Betz Memorial Stadium, on Friday, they will be in absolutely spectacular shape for a playoff birth. Oak Hills could even make the playoffs at 8-2, as they did in 1999 with losses to Elder and Colerain. If Oak Hills wants to make the playoffs, they can't lose to non-Elder/Colerain opponents, and if they hope for a home game, they have to split with Elder and Colerain.
7. COLERAIN
Colerain showed no signs of struggle against Highlands on Saturday night. Colerain can virtually clinch a playoff birth this week with a win over Tyler Lee, Texas. If Colerain beats Tyler Lee, they will finish the season at no worse than 8-2, which will be good enough for a playoff birth. Colerain still has a chance at a top 4 seed with a win over Lee. Colerain would get loads of Harbin points from Lee and could finish up with the #3 seed if they go 9-1 as they did in 2002 when they finished 9-1 with an opening week loss to Moeller.
8. ELDER
While it is not panic time for Elder fans, it should be noted that Elder missed an opportunity for many Harbin points Saturday afternoon. The loss to Massillon Washington means that Elder needs to finish 6-2 to end the season to comfortably make the playoffs at 7-3. Elder's schedule makes this a difficult task, but the resilience they showed today coming almost all the way back from a 28-point defecit in the fourth quarter tells me that they are up to the challenge.
BEST OF THE REST
9. HUBER HEIGHTS WAYNE
10. LEBANON
11. WITHROW
12. PRINCETON
13. LASALLE
14. ANDERSON
15. MASON
16. LAKOTA EAST
17. LAKOTA WEST
18. HUGHES CENTER
19. FAIRFIELD
20. TROY
posted by Joe Kennedy at 10:40 PM
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