POST-WEEK 1 HARBIN FORECAST
St. Xavier
St. Xavier took a huge step to earning a playoff birth with their week 1 victory over Colerain. St. Xavier will make the playoffs with a record of 7-3 or better, and could realistically sneak in with a 6-4 record, though I think they will finish with at least 7 wins. St. Xavier should get significant Harbin points from every opponent they beat, because St. Xavier has one of the most difficult schedules in the state, with each opponent likely to finish with 5 wins or more.
Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-4 seed
7-3: 4-6 seed
6-4: 7-10 seed
Moeller
Moeller started their 2005 season off well with a 38-6 pounding of Withrow. Withrow, like most of Moeller's oppents should give the Crusaders the Harbin points they need to make a run at the #1 seed in Region 4. If Moeller survives unscathed through the first nine weeks of the season, they could face St. Xavier in week 10 at Lockland Stadium with not only a GCL South title on the line, but also the #1 seed in Region 4 at stake.
Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-5 seed
7-3: 5-7 seed
6-4: 8-10 seed
Centerville
Centerville got off to a good start to the 2005 season with a 14-3 home win over Fairfield. Centerville finished 10-0 last year to earn the #2 seed in the Region 4 playoffs. Centerville needs to win two of three against Princeton, Clayton Northmont, and Huber Heights Wayne to secure a playoff birth again in 2005.
Prediction:
10-0: 2-3 seed
9-1: 3-5 seed
8-2: 6-9 seed
7-3: No playoffs
Elder
Elder earned a significant Harbin victory in week 1 over Huber Heights Wayne. With a difficult schedule looming, it was important for Elder to rack up Harbin points before they play the likes of St. Edward, St. Xavier, Moeller, and Indianapolis Bishop Chatard later in the season. Last year Elder finished 7-3 and finished 6th in the Harbins, but would have missed the playoffs at 6-4.
Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-4 seed
7-3: 5-7 seed
6-4: 7-10 seed
Lakota East
Lakota East has increased the difficulty of their nonconference schedule this year, and after week 1, the results have been fruitful. Lakota East defeated Lebanon 31-9 Friday night, and as a result will earn far more Harbin points than they did last year for defeating (2-8) Thomas Worthington. If Lakota East beats Glen Este and Mason in the next two weeks, they would likely only need to defeat either Oak Hills, Colerain, OR, Lakota West to make the playoffs at 8-2 thanks to their improved schedule.
Prediction:
10-0: 1-2 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 4-7 seed
7-3: 7-10 seed
Colerain
Colerain lost an opportunity for a #1 seed in the playoffs in week 1 with their 7-0 loss to St. Xavier. Remember, Colerain was a #3 seed with 10-0 record last season, and rolled through the playoffs with no problem last year. If Colerain defeats Highlands and sweeps their GMC opponents, they will make the playoffs. If Colerain wins out, they can still host a playoff game again this year. If Colerain begins GMC play 0-3, they will likely be out of playoff contention, due to GMC games against Hamilton and Milford, who historically haven't provided opponents with many Harbin points in the recent past.
Prediction:
9-1: 3-5 seed
8-2: 5-7 seed
7-3: 8-10 seed
LaSalle
LaSalle got off to a fast start with a 35-7 victory over Sycamore Saturday afternoon, but lost quarterback Tyler Sheehan in the process. Runningback Isaac Green, who ran for over 100 yards in the game, and LaSalle's defense will likely have to carry the Lancers for the near future as Sheehan recovers from a broken collar bone. LaSalle has a difficult schedule once again this season, but it doesn't include Colerain. If LaSalle goes 4-1 against Northmont, Xenia, Louisville Butler, and East Central, they could slide into the playoffs again at 6-4 without winning a GCL South game. If LaSalle goes 4-1 in the aforementioned games, and wins at least one GCL South game, they will be a lock for the playoffs.
Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 2-3 seed
8-2: 4-5 seed
7-3: 6-7 seed
6-4: 8-10 seed
Mason
Mason put itself right into the playoff picture Friday night with their win over Lakota West at Yaeger Stadium. Mason, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances should be the favorite for an FAVC title this year. While Mason finished 7th in the Harbins last year with an 8-2 record, this year they could have an outside shot at making the playoffs this year at 7-3. Mason will rack up big Harbin points this week if they can knock off Hilliard Davidson who was the #6 seed in Region 3 last year with a 9-1 record. Games against Lakota East, Anderson, Glen Este, and Winton Woods provide Mason the opportunity for their second home playoff game in two years.
Prediction:
10-0: 1-3 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 4-7 seed
7-3: 7-10 seed
Huber Heights Wayne
Wayne suffered a major blow to their chances of a home playoff game this season with their 21-14 loss to Elder Saturday, but still is a major contender for a playoff spot in Region 4. In 2003, Wayne lost its opener to Lakota East, but rallied for 9 consecutive wins to finish 6th in Region 4. Wayne should be considered the favorite in the rest of their games, given that they play their chief rival Centerville at home this season.
Prediction:
9-1: 4-6 seed
8-2: 6-8 seed
7-3: No playoffs
Lakota West
Lakota West missed a major opportunity for Harbin points in week 1, falling to Mason 33-22 at Yaeger Stadium. Lakota West now has little margin for error, as they must finish 8-1 in their last nine games to put them on solid ground for a playoff birth. That is a tall order, as West has road games looming against Winton Woods, Anderson, Princeton, and finally Lakota East to end the season. Lakota West does not play Colerain this year, which increases their playoff chances, as Colerain has outscored Lakota West 169-27 in the past three seasons.
Prediction:
9-1: 4-5
8-2: 5-8
7-3: 9-11
Princeton
Princeton struggled offensively Thursday night to a 7-0 victory over D-II McNicholas to start the season. They must increase their offensive output soon as they host Centerville, Lakota East, and Colerain all in September. Each Princeton victory will bring the Vikings significant Harbin points, but Princeton might struggle to get the seven wins they probably need to make a run at the playoffs.
Prediction:
10-0: 1-2 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 3-6 seed
7-3: 6-9 seed
6-4: No playoffs
St. Xavier took a huge step to earning a playoff birth with their week 1 victory over Colerain. St. Xavier will make the playoffs with a record of 7-3 or better, and could realistically sneak in with a 6-4 record, though I think they will finish with at least 7 wins. St. Xavier should get significant Harbin points from every opponent they beat, because St. Xavier has one of the most difficult schedules in the state, with each opponent likely to finish with 5 wins or more.
Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-4 seed
7-3: 4-6 seed
6-4: 7-10 seed
Moeller
Moeller started their 2005 season off well with a 38-6 pounding of Withrow. Withrow, like most of Moeller's oppents should give the Crusaders the Harbin points they need to make a run at the #1 seed in Region 4. If Moeller survives unscathed through the first nine weeks of the season, they could face St. Xavier in week 10 at Lockland Stadium with not only a GCL South title on the line, but also the #1 seed in Region 4 at stake.
Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-5 seed
7-3: 5-7 seed
6-4: 8-10 seed
Centerville
Centerville got off to a good start to the 2005 season with a 14-3 home win over Fairfield. Centerville finished 10-0 last year to earn the #2 seed in the Region 4 playoffs. Centerville needs to win two of three against Princeton, Clayton Northmont, and Huber Heights Wayne to secure a playoff birth again in 2005.
Prediction:
10-0: 2-3 seed
9-1: 3-5 seed
8-2: 6-9 seed
7-3: No playoffs
Elder
Elder earned a significant Harbin victory in week 1 over Huber Heights Wayne. With a difficult schedule looming, it was important for Elder to rack up Harbin points before they play the likes of St. Edward, St. Xavier, Moeller, and Indianapolis Bishop Chatard later in the season. Last year Elder finished 7-3 and finished 6th in the Harbins, but would have missed the playoffs at 6-4.
Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1-2 seed
8-2: 3-4 seed
7-3: 5-7 seed
6-4: 7-10 seed
Lakota East
Lakota East has increased the difficulty of their nonconference schedule this year, and after week 1, the results have been fruitful. Lakota East defeated Lebanon 31-9 Friday night, and as a result will earn far more Harbin points than they did last year for defeating (2-8) Thomas Worthington. If Lakota East beats Glen Este and Mason in the next two weeks, they would likely only need to defeat either Oak Hills, Colerain, OR, Lakota West to make the playoffs at 8-2 thanks to their improved schedule.
Prediction:
10-0: 1-2 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 4-7 seed
7-3: 7-10 seed
Colerain
Colerain lost an opportunity for a #1 seed in the playoffs in week 1 with their 7-0 loss to St. Xavier. Remember, Colerain was a #3 seed with 10-0 record last season, and rolled through the playoffs with no problem last year. If Colerain defeats Highlands and sweeps their GMC opponents, they will make the playoffs. If Colerain wins out, they can still host a playoff game again this year. If Colerain begins GMC play 0-3, they will likely be out of playoff contention, due to GMC games against Hamilton and Milford, who historically haven't provided opponents with many Harbin points in the recent past.
Prediction:
9-1: 3-5 seed
8-2: 5-7 seed
7-3: 8-10 seed
LaSalle
LaSalle got off to a fast start with a 35-7 victory over Sycamore Saturday afternoon, but lost quarterback Tyler Sheehan in the process. Runningback Isaac Green, who ran for over 100 yards in the game, and LaSalle's defense will likely have to carry the Lancers for the near future as Sheehan recovers from a broken collar bone. LaSalle has a difficult schedule once again this season, but it doesn't include Colerain. If LaSalle goes 4-1 against Northmont, Xenia, Louisville Butler, and East Central, they could slide into the playoffs again at 6-4 without winning a GCL South game. If LaSalle goes 4-1 in the aforementioned games, and wins at least one GCL South game, they will be a lock for the playoffs.
Prediction:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 2-3 seed
8-2: 4-5 seed
7-3: 6-7 seed
6-4: 8-10 seed
Mason
Mason put itself right into the playoff picture Friday night with their win over Lakota West at Yaeger Stadium. Mason, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances should be the favorite for an FAVC title this year. While Mason finished 7th in the Harbins last year with an 8-2 record, this year they could have an outside shot at making the playoffs this year at 7-3. Mason will rack up big Harbin points this week if they can knock off Hilliard Davidson who was the #6 seed in Region 3 last year with a 9-1 record. Games against Lakota East, Anderson, Glen Este, and Winton Woods provide Mason the opportunity for their second home playoff game in two years.
Prediction:
10-0: 1-3 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 4-7 seed
7-3: 7-10 seed
Huber Heights Wayne
Wayne suffered a major blow to their chances of a home playoff game this season with their 21-14 loss to Elder Saturday, but still is a major contender for a playoff spot in Region 4. In 2003, Wayne lost its opener to Lakota East, but rallied for 9 consecutive wins to finish 6th in Region 4. Wayne should be considered the favorite in the rest of their games, given that they play their chief rival Centerville at home this season.
Prediction:
9-1: 4-6 seed
8-2: 6-8 seed
7-3: No playoffs
Lakota West
Lakota West missed a major opportunity for Harbin points in week 1, falling to Mason 33-22 at Yaeger Stadium. Lakota West now has little margin for error, as they must finish 8-1 in their last nine games to put them on solid ground for a playoff birth. That is a tall order, as West has road games looming against Winton Woods, Anderson, Princeton, and finally Lakota East to end the season. Lakota West does not play Colerain this year, which increases their playoff chances, as Colerain has outscored Lakota West 169-27 in the past three seasons.
Prediction:
9-1: 4-5
8-2: 5-8
7-3: 9-11
Princeton
Princeton struggled offensively Thursday night to a 7-0 victory over D-II McNicholas to start the season. They must increase their offensive output soon as they host Centerville, Lakota East, and Colerain all in September. Each Princeton victory will bring the Vikings significant Harbin points, but Princeton might struggle to get the seven wins they probably need to make a run at the playoffs.
Prediction:
10-0: 1-2 seed
9-1: 3-4 seed
8-2: 3-6 seed
7-3: 6-9 seed
6-4: No playoffs
posted by Joe Kennedy at 6:49 PM
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