UPDATE: FINAL REGION 4 HARBINS
1. St Xavier
2. Colerain
3. Sycamore
4. Centerville
5. Princeton
6. Moeller
7. Northmont
8. Elder
MATCH-UPS
8. ELDER
1. ST. XAVIER
5. PRINCETON
4. CENTERVILLE
6. MOELLER
3. SYCAMORE
7. NORTHMONT
2. COLERAIN
In week 2, Colerain defeated
These forfeitures lower Colerain’s projected final
Colerain (10-0: 30.2132) would finish with a higher seed than Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) with the following scenarios:
The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle,
*Note:
*Note: Both Colerain and Moeller have defeated Mason, so the Mason result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another.
*Note:
Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) would finish with a higher seed than Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) with the following scenarios:
The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Withrow, Harrison, and Springboro wins, with Mason,
*Note:
*Note: Both Sycamore and Moeller have defeated Mason, so the Mason result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another.
*Note: Lakota West plays Lakota East. Sycamore has defeated both of these D-I teams, so the result of their game will not affect Sycamore’s final
Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) would finish with a higher seed than Colerain (10-0: 30.2132) with the following scenarios:
The base scenario includes Withrow, Harrison, Springboro,
*Note: Lakota West plays Lakota East. Both Colerain and Sycamore have beaten these D-I teams, so this result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another
*Note:
CONCLUSION:
Moeller will likely clinch the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier. Colerain would have the inside track for the #3 seed, but given their very close proximity to Sycamore, they could drop to the #4 seed with results of other games, as listed above.
With a Moeller loss, Colerain would have the inside track for the #2 seed, but again, given their close very proximity to Sycamore, they could drop to the #3 seed with results of other games, as listed above. Moeller would likely have a first round road game, with numerous scenarios detailing their projected finish in the “Moeller (6-3)” post from 10/23/2007.
CONCLUSION: HERE ARE THE PROJECTED FINISHING POSITIONS FOR ELDER
Elder could finish 5th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne. (Somehow conceivably mathematically possible, but highly, highly unlikely)
Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne.
Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne.
Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 6th if Northmont, Princeton, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.
Elder could finish 7th if Harrison and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Northmont or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 7th if Harrison and Northmont lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Princeton or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 7th if Northmont and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 7th if Northmont and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would lift Elder over Moeller, and would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 8th if Harrison loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Princeton, Northmont, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 8th if Princeton loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Northmont, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 8th if Northmont loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Princeton, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 8th if Moeller loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Princeton, or Northmont, but would lift Elder over Moeller and would keep Elder ahead of
Elder could finish 8th if Harrison and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Northmont or Moeller, and would place Elder behind of
Elder could finish 9th if Harrison,
Elder could finish 9th if Harrison,
Elder could finish 9th if Harrison and Northmont win, Princeton and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, and would place Wayne ahead of Elder.
Elder could finish 9th if Princeton and Northmont win, Harrison and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, and would place Wayne ahead of Elder.
Elder could finish 10th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller all win, coupled with other results that would place
Elder could finish 10th if Harrison, Princeton, and Northmont win, Moeller loses, and other results occur that would place
While Elder fans may be focused on the teams they need to overtake, Elder also needs to be wary of Huber Heights Wayne, projected to finish 10th with 22.0500
In order to stay ahead of HH Wayne, Elder needs to get Level 2 help from the opponents they have already beaten this season, while at the same time, rooting against HH Wayne getting Level 2 help from their previous opponents. The base scenario includes Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, Northmont, and Springfield North victories, with Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, Cleveland Benedictine, Fairfield, Springfield South, and Kettering Fairmont losses.... unless otherwise noted below.
*
Note: Oak Hills (Colerain) and Kettering Fairmont (
The following scenarios will likely determine whether Elder (7-3) finishes ahead of Huber Heights Wayne (7-3). Please note that a Clayton Northmont loss would benefit Elder in two (2) ways, as it would open a playoff spot, and reduce HH Wayne's total
Elder is projected to finish 9th in Region 4 with 22.6582
Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) could finish with a higher seed than Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) with the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Lakota West, and Charlotte Independence wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine losses... unless otherwise noted below.
*Mason and Oak Hills victories are unlikely and will not be included in scenarios.
Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) could finish with a higher seed than Northmont (7-3 - 24.5566) with the following scenario. The base scenario includes Chaminade-Julienne,
Note:
FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS | |||
1 | ST. XAVIER (8-0) | 10-0 | 44.8104 |
2 | COLERAIN (9-0) | 10-0 | 32.1605 |
3 | SYCAMORE (8-1) | 9-1 | 29.8500 |
4 | CENTERVILLE (7-2) | 8-2 | 26.9000 |
5 | HARRISON (7-2) | 8-2 | 26.5000 |
6 | PRINCETON (7-2) | 8-2 | 25.0000 |
7 | NORTHMONT (6-3) | 7-3 | 24.5566 |
8 | MOELLER (5-2) | 6-3 | 24.4042 |
9 | ELDER (5-3) | 7-3 | 22.6582 |
10 | HH WAYNE (7-2) | 8-2 | 22.0500 |
11 | LASALLE (4-5) | 5-5 | 20.2727 |
12 | GLEN ESTE (5-4) | 6-4 | 20.0500 |