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Saturday, October 27, 2007

UPDATE: FINAL REGION 4 HARBINS

Due To Mission Viejo's (CA) postponement of their game until Monday, October 29 due to the California wildfires, this result will not be included in Moeller's final Harbin rankings. This postponement drops Moeller's divisor from 87 to 86, and increases their total Harbins from 24.4042 to 24.6421, over Northmont at 24.5566.

1. St Xavier
2. Colerain
3. Sycamore
4. Centerville
5. Princeton
6. Moeller
7. Northmont
8. Elder

MATCH-UPS

8. ELDER
1. ST. XAVIER

5. PRINCETON
4. CENTERVILLE

6. MOELLER
3. SYCAMORE

7. NORTHMONT
2. COLERAIN

Region 4 Final Harbins

You heard it here first on the Prep Sports Radio Network...

1. St Xavier
2. Colerain
3. Sycamore
4. Centerville
5. Princeton
6. Northmont
7. Moeller
8. Elder

Thursday, October 25, 2007

HOOVER (ALA) FORFEITS – COLERAIN, SYCAMORE, & MOELLER IMPACT

In week 2, Colerain defeated Hoover (Alabama) in the Herbstreit Challenge at Nippert Stadium. Since then, Hoover has rebounded for six consecutive wins to bring their record to (6-1). On Wednesday, October 24, 2007, The Birmingham News reported that Hoover would have to forfeit four (4) games for using an ineligible player, thus dropping their record to (2-5).

These forfeitures lower Colerain’s projected final Harbin points from 32.7395 down to 30.2132 Harbin points. This development opens the door for Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) to seriously challenge for the #2 seed in Region 4. It also gives Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) the inside track for the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier in week 10.

Colerain (10-0: 30.2132) would finish with a higher seed than Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Wayne, Hoover, and Clarke Road wins, with Middletown, Mason, Findlay, and Lakewood St. Edward losses… unless otherwise noted below.

*Note: Indianapolis Cathedral has already completed a ten (10) game seaso
*Note: Both Colerain and Moeller have defeated Mason, so the Mason result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another.

*Note: Hamilton plays Fairfield and Lakota West plays Lakota East. Colerain has defeated all four (4) of these D-I teams, so the results of their games will not affect Colerain’s final Harbin point total.

  • One (1) loss from either Brother Rice or LaSalle AND a Middletown win
  • Losses from both Brother Rice and LaSalle

Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) would finish with a higher seed than Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Withrow, Harrison, and Springboro wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Fairfield, Oak Hills, and Middletown losses.

*Note: Indianapolis Cathedral has already completed a ten (10) game season

*Note: Both Sycamore and Moeller have defeated Mason, so the Mason result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another.

*Note: Lakota West plays Lakota East. Sycamore has defeated both of these D-I teams, so the result of their game will not affect Sycamore’s final Harbin point total.

  • Two wins combined from Fairfield, Oak Hills, and Middletown
  • One (1) loss from either Brother Rice or LaSalle AND one win from Fairfield, Oak Hills, or Middletown
  • Losses from both Brother Rice and LaSalle

Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) would finish with a higher seed than Colerain (10-0: 30.2132) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Withrow, Harrison, Springboro, Wayne, Hoover, and Clarke Road wins, with Mason, Middletown, Fairfield, and Oak Hills losses… unless otherwise noted.

*Note: Lakota West plays Lakota East. Both Colerain and Sycamore have beaten these D-I teams, so this result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another

*Note: Fairfield plays Hamilton. Colerain has defeated both Fairfield and Hamilton, while Sycamore has only defeated Fairfield. If Fairfield defeats Hamilton, this will increase Sycamore’s projected Harbin points by 0.6000, while keeping Colerain’s projected Harbin points the same.

  • One win from Fairfield or Oak Hills, OR one loss from Wayne, Hoover, or Clarke Road – with all other projections remaining constant


CONCLUSION:

Moeller will likely clinch the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier. Colerain would have the inside track for the #3 seed, but given their very close proximity to Sycamore, they could drop to the #4 seed with results of other games, as listed above.

With a Moeller loss, Colerain would have the inside track for the #2 seed, but again, given their close very proximity to Sycamore, they could drop to the #3 seed with results of other games, as listed above. Moeller would likely have a first round road game, with numerous scenarios detailing their projected finish in the “Moeller (6-3)” post from 10/23/2007.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

ELDER - PART III

CONCLUSION: HERE ARE THE PROJECTED FINISHING POSITIONS FOR ELDER

Elder could finish 5th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne. (Somehow conceivably mathematically possible, but highly, highly unlikely)


Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.


Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 6th if Northmont, Princeton, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 7th if Harrison and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Northmont or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 7th if Harrison and Northmont lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Princeton or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 7th if Northmont and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 7th if Northmont and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would lift Elder over Moeller, and would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.


Elder could finish 8th if Harrison loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Princeton, Northmont, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Princeton loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Northmont, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Northmont loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Princeton, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Moeller loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Princeton, or Northmont, but would lift Elder over Moeller and would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Harrison and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Northmont or Moeller, and would place Elder behind of Wayne.


Elder could finish 9th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller all win.

Elder could finish 9th if Harrison, Princeton, and Northmont win, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Northmont or Moeller.

Elder could finish 9th if Harrison and Northmont win, Princeton and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, and would place Wayne ahead of Elder.

Elder could finish 9th if Princeton and Northmont win, Harrison and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, and would place Wayne ahead of Elder.

Elder could finish 10th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller all win, coupled with other results that would place Wayne ahead of Elder.

Elder could finish 10th if Harrison, Princeton, and Northmont win, Moeller loses, and other results occur that would place Wayne ahead of Elder.

ELDER - PART II

While Elder fans may be focused on the teams they need to overtake, Elder also needs to be wary of Huber Heights Wayne, projected to finish 10th with 22.0500 Harbin points.

In order to stay ahead of HH Wayne, Elder needs to get Level 2 help from the opponents they have already beaten this season, while at the same time, rooting against HH Wayne getting Level 2 help from their previous opponents. The base scenario includes Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, Northmont, and Springfield North victories, with Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, Cleveland Benedictine, Fairfield, Springfield South, and Kettering Fairmont losses.... unless otherwise noted below.
* Springfield South (D-II) plays Springfield North (D-I). Also, Xenia (D-I) plays Beavercreek (D-I). HH Wayne has beaten all four (4) teams.
Note: Oak Hills (Colerain) and Kettering Fairmont (Centerville) victories are unlikely, and will not be included in scenarios.

The following scenarios will likely determine whether Elder (7-3) finishes ahead of Huber Heights Wayne (7-3). Please note that a Clayton Northmont loss would benefit Elder in two (2) ways, as it would open a playoff spot, and reduce HH Wayne's total Harbin points by 0.5500.

  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.6082]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5582]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 1.1582]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 1.1082]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.0082]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0418]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5582]
  • Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5082]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Wayne + 0.0103]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0603]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5397]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.4897]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5567]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5067]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 1.1067]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 1.0567]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win and S. North over S. South. [Wayne + 0.0433]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0933]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5067]
  • One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.4567]

ELDER - PART I

Elder is projected to finish 9th in Region 4 with 22.6582 Harbin points. In order to qualify for the playoffs, Elder likely needs Harrison (7-2), Princeton (7-2), Northmont (6-3) to lose, as Elder has only limited opportunities, with significant Level 2 help, to overtake Moeller (@ 6-3) or Northmont (@ 7-3). Barring an Oak Hills win over Colerain, Elder cannot overtake Princeton without a Princeton loss. Elder also cannot overtake Harrison without a Harrison loss.

Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) could finish with a higher seed than Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) with the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Lakota West, and Charlotte Independence wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine losses... unless otherwise noted below.
*Mason and Oak Hills victories are unlikely and will not be included in scenarios.

  • Brother Rice and LaSalle losses AND either a Covington Catholic or Cleveland Benedictine win
  • A Brother Rice or LaSalle loss AND both a Covington Catholic and Cleveland Benedictine win

Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) could finish with a higher seed than Northmont (7-3 - 24.5566) with the following scenario. The base scenario includes Chaminade-Julienne, Miamisburg, Troy, Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine losses, with Sidney, Lakota West, and Charlotte Independence wins... unless otherwise noted below.
Note: Butler plays Trotwood-Madison. Northmont has beaten both D-II teams.

  • Sidney loss AND Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine wins

MOELLER (6-3)

While Moeller (6-2) has virtually guaranteed a playoff spot, even with a loss in Week 10 to St. Xavier, their final seeding is far from determined, as Moeller is projected to finish with 24.4042 Harbin points and could finish anywhere from 5th to 9th (See Elder post).

Moeller (6-3 -
24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Harrison (8-2 - 26.5000) with a Harrison loss, or the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Talawanda, Glen Este, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Oak Hills, Northwest, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses... unless otherwise noted (Cathedral & East Central have already completed a 10-game schedules.
Note: Loveland plays Milford. Harrison has beaten both D-I teams.
  • Talawanda and Glen Este losses AND two (2) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward
  • Talawanda or Glen Este losses AND three (3) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward
Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Princeton (8-2 - 25.6000) with a Princeton loss, or the following scenario. The base scenario includes Centerville, Lakota West, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Western Hills, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses.
Note: Hamilton plays Fairfield and Sycamore plays Mason. Princeton has beaten all four (4) D-I teams.
*A Centerville loss, and wins from either Western Hills or Mason are unlikely
and will not be included in scenarios .
  • A Lakota West loss AND a Lakewood St. Edward win. (A Lakota West loss with Findlay win would keep Princeton over Moeller by 0.0211 Harbin points)
Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Northmont (7-3 - 24.5566) with a Northmont loss, or the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Sidney, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Chaminade-Julienne, Miamisburg, Troy, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses.
Note: Butler plays Trotwood-Madison. Northmont has beaten both D-II teams.

  • A Sidney loss OR one (1) win from Mason, Findlay, or St. Edward
  • A Sidney win AND one (1) win from Mason, Findlay, or St. Edward.
  • A Sidney win and one (1) win from C-J, Miamisburg, or Troy AND two (2) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward.
Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a lower seed than Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) with the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Lakota West, and Charlotte Independence wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine losses.
*Mason and Oak Hills victories are highly unlikely and will not be included in scenarios.
  • Brother Rice and LaSalle losses AND either a Covington Catholic or Cleveland Benedictine win
  • A Brother Rice or LaSalle loss AND both a Covington Catholic and Cleveland Benedictine win

CONCLUSION:

Moeller will finish ahead of Harrison, Princeton, or Northmont, if any of those teams loses in week 10. Therefore Moeller
could finish with the #5 seed with Harrison, Princeton, and Northmont losses.

*Please note that there are many possible scenarios for each team, and the scenarios listed below are not all-inclusive. To include all scenarios would be mind-numbing for you... and especially for me.

Moeller could also finish with the #5 seed with a Harrison loss, and
coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would lift Moeller over both Princeton and Northmont

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over both Princeton and Northmont

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with other results Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Northmont, but not over Princeton.

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with other results Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Princeton, but not over Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison win, c
oupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Northmont, but not over Princeton.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Princeton, but not over Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below both Princeton and Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #8 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with
with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below both Princeton and Northmont, but ahead of Elder.

Moeller could finish with the #8 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below Princeton, Northmont, and Elder.

MOELLER (7-2)

While Moeller (6-2) has likely already clinched a spot in the Region 4 playoffs, they can earn a first round home game with a win over St. Xavier (9-0) in week 10. With a win over St. Xavier, Moeller is projected to finish with 31.0479 Harbin points, which would likely place them 3rd in Region 4. This would likely put them above Sycamore (29.8500), cost Centerville (26.9000) and Harrison (26.5000) their shot at a first round home playoff game, and put Moeller just behind Colerain (32.7395) for the #2 seed.

For Moeller to overtake Colerain for the #2 seed, the following scenarios would have to occur. These projections include HH Wayne, Hoover, Clarke Road, Brother Rice and LaSalle victories, with Mason, Middletown, Findlay, and St. Edward losses... unless otherwise noted (Cathedral has already completed 10 games).
  • Three (3) losses from HH Wayne, Hoover and Clarke Road
  • Two (2) losses from HH Wayne, Hoover and Clarke Road AND a Findlay or St. Edward win
  • One (1) loss from HH Wayne, Hoover or Clarke Road AND wins from Findlay and St. Edward
For Moeller to fall below Sycamore to the #4 seed, the following scenarios would have to occur. These projections include Withrow, Springboro, Harrison, Brother Rice and LaSalle wins, with Fairfield, Oak Hills, Middletown, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses... unless otherwise noted (Cathedral has already completed 10 games).
  • Two (2) wins from Fairfield, Oak Hills, and Middletown
  • One win from Fairfield, Oak Hills, or Middletown AND a LaSalle or Brother Rice loss

CONCLUSION:

Moeller will finish with the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that will lift them over Colerain.

Moeller will finish with the #3 seed
with a win over St. Xavier if they do not get enough Level 2 help to lift them over Colerain, but get enough Level 2 help to keep them ahead of Sycamore.

Moeller will finish with the #4 seed with a win over St. Xavier if they do not get enough Level 2 help to lift them over Colerain or keep them ahead of Sycamore.


Monday, October 22, 2007

EXTENSIVE ELDER & MOELLER UPDATES FORTHCOMING

Stay tuned...

Sunday, October 21, 2007

HARRISON - UPDATE

As listed in a previous post, Harrison controls their own destiny for a Region 4 playoff spot. With a win, they will clinch either the #4 or #5 seed. With a loss, they are likely out of the playoffs, barring a Northmont loss and other upsets.

Centerville is projected to finish #4 with 26.9000 Harbin points and Harrison (8-2) is projected to finish with 26.5000 points. These projections include Northmont, Wayne, Talawanda, and Glen Este wins, with Lakota East, Oak Hills, and Northwest losses.

Harrison's best chance for a home game would likely come from a Lakota East loss, coupled with Glen Este and Northwest wins. If Lakota East wins, or either Glen Este or Northwest lose, then Centerville can virtually clinch the #4 seed, with Harrison finishing #5.

Since these two teams are separated by only 0.4 points, this means that it would only take one game to go against the projection for Harrison to overtake Centerville for the #4 seed. With that said, it appears that Centerville has the inside track for the #4 seed over Harrison.

NORTHMONT

Clayton Northmont controls their own destiny for a position in the Region 4 playoffs. With a win over Piqua in week 10, Northmont will guarantee themselves a road game in the first round of the playoffs, with their seeding determined by the results of other games.

Northmont is projected to finish with 24.5566 Harbin points and the #7 seed, just below Princeton @ 25.6000 and Moeller (6-3) @ 24.4042. With that noted, Northmont could finish as high as the #5 seed with a Harrison loss and results listed in the Princeton post. Conversely, Northmont could drop below Moeller with a Moeller victory over St. Xavier, or the scenarios listed below (Projections include Troy and Mason losses, and Brother Rice and LaSalle wins):
  • Two losses from C-J, Miamisburg, and Sidney AND either a Findlay or St. Edward win
  • Three losses from C-J, Miamisburg, and Sidney
  • C-J loss AND Findlay and St. Edward wins
  • Miamisburg loss AND a St. Edward win
In conclusion, here's a Northmont summary:

Northmont could finish with the #5 seed with Harrison and Moeller losses, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would lift Northmont over Princeton and keep them ahead of Moeller.

Northmont could finish with the #6 seed if Harrison wins, Moeller loses, and Northmont gets Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton and ahead of Moeller.

Northmont could also finish with the #6 seed if Harrison and Moeller lose, and
Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton, but does get enough help to keep them ahead of Moeller.

Northmont could further finish with the #6 seed if Harrison loses, Moeller wins, and Northmont gets Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton.

Northmont could finish with the #7 seed if Harrison wins, Moeller loses, and Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton, but does get enough help to keep them ahead of Moeller.

Northmont could also finish with the #7 seed if Harrison loses, Moeller wins, and Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton.

Northmont could finish with the #8 seed if Harrison and Moeller win and
Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton.

Northmont could also finish with the #8 seed if Harrison wins, Moeller loses,
Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton, and Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to keep them ahead of Moeller.

Finally, Northmont could finish out of the playoffs... if they lose.


MY HEAD HURTS.

PRINCETON - UPDATED

While Princeton's loss to Lakota East on Friday night cost them a first round home game, Princeton still will clinch a playoff spot with a week 10 victory over Middletown.

With a win over Middletown, Princeton is projected to finish with 25.6000 Harbin points and the #6 seed, just ahead of Northmont and Moeller.

Princeton can clinch a higher seed than
Northmont with the following results (Already projecting a Centerville win and a Troy loss to Wayne):
  • Lakota West over Lakota East AND a Chaminade-Julienne, Miamisburg or Sidney loss.
  • Lakota West loss to Lakota East AND a combination of two losses from C-J, Miamisburg, and Sidney.
Princeton can clinch a higher seed than Moeller (6-3) with the following results (projecting Centerville and Brother Rice wins, and a Mason loss to Sycamore)
  • Lakota West over Lakota East AND either a Lakewood St. Edward or Findlay loss
  • Lakota West loss to Lakota East AND a Lakewood St. Edward loss

***UPDATE:
Here is the Princeton Summary:

Princeton can clinch the #5 seed with Harrison and Moeller losses, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Pr
inceton can clinch the #6 seed with a Harrison loss, Moeller win, and Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can also clinch the #6 seed with a
Harrison win, Moeller loss, and Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can clinch the #7 seed with Harrison and Moeller wins, and
Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can also
clinch the #7 seed with a Harrison loss, Moeller win, and with Princeton not receiving the Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can also clinch the #7 seed with a Harrison win, Moeller loss, and with Princeton not receiving the Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can clinch the #8 seed with Harrison and Moeller wins,
and with Princeton not receiving the Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton likely will miss the playoffs... if they lose.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

RADIO APPEARANCE

For additional information concerning my Region 4 Harbin Projections, please listen to my guest appearance on the Prep Sports Radio Network's broadcast of the Cleveland Benedictine v. Elder game Saturday night beginning at 7:00, airing on AM 740, Sacred Heart Radio.

Friday, October 19, 2007

HARRISON 24, GLEN ESTE 21

Harrison's Thursday night victory kept their hopes alive for a Region 4 playoff spot, while effectively eliminating Glen Este from contention. Next week, Harrison plays Anderson at Paul Brown Stadium with their playoff hopes on the line. If Harrison defeats Anderson (and snaps their 5-game series losing streak), they will likely play Centerville in the first round of the playoffs.

If Harrison loses to Anderson, they are very likely out of playoff contention, since they will have been leapfrogged by both Elder and Huber Heights Wayne and likely be relegated to the #10 position in Region 4.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Harrison defeats Anderson and finishes with the #5 seed.

CENTERVILLE 42, SPRINGFIELD SOUTH 0

Centerville's 42-point pasting of South tonight virtually guaranteed Centerville a Region 4 playoff spot. Barring a Centerville loss, coupled with a host of upsets in other games, Centerville will be playing in week 11.

Almost as importantly, Centerville's win tonight, along with Princeton's loss, puts Centerville in prime position to land the #4 seed and a first round home playoff game. While projected to beat out Harrison (8-2) for the #4 seed by 0.4000 Harbin points, Centerville appears to have the inside track for the #4 seed. The key game for Centerville and Harrison fans to watch will be Northwest v. Ross. A Ross win will put Centerville in line for the #4 seed, while conversely, a Northwest win will put Harrison in the driver's seat.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Centerville will be the #4 seed in Region 4.

SYCAMORE 23, LAKOTA WEST 7

Sycamore's win tonight likely ensures that Sycamore will earn the #3 seed in Region 4 with a week 10 win against Middletown. As stated in the previous post, Sycamore will not overtake Colerain for the #2 seed, and Princeton's loss tonight ensures that Sycamore will finish no lower than #3 with a win next week.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Sycamore will finish with the #3 seed in Region 4.

COLERAIN 35, HAMILTON 7

Colerain rolled through Hamilton Friday night, and will cruise to the #2 seed in Region 4 with a win over Oak Hills in Week 10. Since Colerain and Sycamore have six (6) common opponents on their schedule, Sycamore will not be able to overtake Colerain for the #2 seed without a Colerain loss.

Colerain would not surpass St. Xavier for the #1 seed, even if St. Xavier would lose their final two games.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Colerain will be the #2 seed.

LAKOTA EAST 35, PRINCETON 21

Tonight's big stunner was Lakota East's 35-21 victory at Princeton. While this game has cost Princeton a first round home game, it has not cost them a playoff spot. With a win in their final game against Middletown, Princeton will finish with a projected 25.0000 Harbin points, which will easily qualify them for the playoffs.

Princeton still controls their own playoff destiny, but will definitely be on the road in the first round of the playoffs... assuming they take care of business against Middletown.

At 4-5, Lakota East is out of playoff contention.

MID-WEEK 9 REGION 4 PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS (10/19/2007)

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1 ST. XAVIER (8-0)
10-0 44.8104
2 COLERAIN (9-0)
10-0 32.1605
3 SYCAMORE (8-1)
9-1 29.8500
4 CENTERVILLE (7-2)
8-2 26.9000
5 HARRISON (7-2)
8-2 26.5000
6 PRINCETON (7-2)
8-2 25.0000
7 NORTHMONT (6-3)
7-3 24.5566
8 MOELLER (5-2)
6-3 24.4042
9 ELDER (5-3)
7-3 22.6582
10 HH WAYNE (7-2)
8-2 22.0500
11 LASALLE (4-5)
5-5 20.2727
12 GLEN ESTE (5-4)
6-4 20.0500

Thursday, October 18, 2007

I'M BACK

After eight weeks spent analyzing the Region 4 Harbins, I'm back with my first projections for the 2007 season.

As always, please note that these are projections, and as we've already seen this year, just one upset could have wide-ranging effects on the Region 4 outlook.

11. HARRISON

Harrison, currently 6-2, is projected to finish 7-3, with a loss to Glen Este in week 9. Despite being projected to finish 11th in Region 4, Harrison actually controls their own playoff destiny, given the strength of their final two opponents, Glen Este and Anderson. If Harrison defeats both Glen Este and Anderson, they project to finish with 26.5000 Harbin points, which would place them in contention with Centerville and LaSalle for the #5 seed. However, with a loss to either Glen Este or Anderson, Harrison is highly unlikely to qualify for the Region 4 playoffs, as they would need to leapfrog three (3) teams to qualify.

8-2 (Win last two games): 26.5000 --> First Round Road Game --> Likely #5 or #6 seed
7-3 (Loss one of last two): 22.3500 --> Out of Playoffs

10. ELDER

Elder is currently projected to finish 7-3 and finish 10th in Region 4. In order to qualify for the playoffs, Elder will need significant help in the form of losses from the teams currently projected ahead of them in the final Region 4 standings. Due to the significant difference between Moeller, projected 8th with 24.3076 Harbin points and Elder, projected 10th with 22.6582, it does not appear that Elder can overtake Moeller purely with changes to the projected Level 2 Harbin points over the last two weeks.

Therefore, Elder fans should be rooting for two (2) the following four (4) scenarios to come to fruition in order to put their team squarely on the bubble for qualification in the Region 4 Playoffs:

  1. Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
  2. Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9) or Piqua over Northmont (Week 10)
  3. Lakewood St. Edward over Moeller (Week 9) & St. Xavier over Moeller (Week 10)
4a. Winton Woods over Glen Este (Week 10 - If Glen Este defeats Harrison in Week 9)
4b. Anderson over Harrison (Week 10 - If Harrison defeats Glen Este in Week 9)

Elder has their work cut out for them from a Harbin prospective over the last two weeks, and even with substantial help, as listed above, could find themselves on the outside looking in.

9. GLEN ESTE

Glen Este (5-3) must win its last two games against Harrison and Winton Woods to put themselves in a position where they are on the bubble for a Region 4 playoff birth.

Glen Este is projected at 7-3 to finish 9th in Region 4, only 0.2467 behind Moeller at 6-3 for the 8th and final playoff spot. Given the number of games left in the season that comprise the Level 2 Harbin points, Glen Este has a very legitimate chance of overtaking a 6-3 Moeller team, if Glen Este finishes 7-3.

Glen Este can clinch a playoff spot with a 7-3 record if any of the following realistic scenarios occur:
  • Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
  • Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9) or Piqua over Northmont (Week 10)
  • Lakewood St. Edward over Moeller (Week 9) & St. Xavier over Moeller (Week 10)

8. MOELLER

Moeller (5-2) enters its final two games versus Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier needing one (1) win to put them squarely on the bubble for a Region 4 playoff birth.

With a win over Lakewood St. Edward, Moeller projects to finish 8th in Region 4 by 0.2467 over a Glen Este team projected to finish 7-3 with wins over Harrison and Winton Woods to end their season. If Harrison defeats Glen Este, then defeats Anderson in Week 10, this would take Glen Este out of the playoff picture, but would also leapfrog Harrison into the playoffs, and leave Moeller and Northmont to contend for the #8 seed.

Moeller fans should root for any of the following realistic scenarios to likely clinch Region 4 playoff qualification with a 6-3 record:
  • Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
  • Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9)
  • Piqua over Northmont (Week 9)
  • Winton Woods over Glen Este (Week 10 - If Glen Este defeats Harrison in Week 9)
  • Anderson over Harrison (Week 10 - If Harrison defeats Glen Este in Week 9)
If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier, they will qualify as the #3 seed in Region 4 and host a First Round Home Game.

7. NORTHMONT

Clayton Northmont is 5-3 and must win their final two games against Trotwood-Madison and Piqua in order to put themselves in good position to qualify for the Region 4 playoffs. Winning these two games would put Northmont in very good position for a playoff birth, but given the close proximity of Moeller, and the winner of Thursday night's Glen Este v. Harrison match-up, Northmont is not in position to control their own destiny at this point.

7-3 (Win last two games): 24.6071 --> Likely First Round Road Playoff Game --> #7 or #8 Seed
6-4 (Loss v. Trotwood): 20.0672 --> Out of Playoff Contention
6-4 (Loss v. Piqua): 19.5116 --> Out of Playoff Contention

6. LASALLE

At 4-4, LaSalle must win its last two games against Columbus St. Francis De Sales and Dayton Colonel White to finish 6-4 and qualify for the Region 4 playoffs. At 6-4, LaSalle likely will be either the #5 or #6 seed, depending on how their Level 2 Harbin points compare with Centerville.

6-4 (Win last two games): 26.0289 --> First Round Road Game --> Likely #5 or #6
5-5 (Loss v. Cols De Sales): 20.2727 --> Out of Playoff Contention

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

5. CENTERVILLE

After defeating Huber Heights Wayne in overtime in Week 8, Centerville will clinch a playoff birth by winning its final two games against Springfield South (1-7) and Kettering Fairmont (3-5). Centerville will likely finish either 5th or 6th in Region 4 with an 8-2 record but could slide up to the #4 spot with either a Sycamore or Princeton loss.

Note: Centerville will be in a very close race with LaSalle for the #5 spot if both teams win their last two games, as they are projected to be separated by less than 0.3 Harbin points.

8-2 (Win last two games): 26.3000 --> Clinch Playoff Spot --> Likely #5 or #6 seed
7-3 (Loss v. K. Fairmont): 23.3500 --> Likely on Outside Looking In --> Need Help

4. PRINCETON

Princeton has rolled through GMC competition this year, and if they take care of business against Lakota East and Middletown to end the season, they will likely finish fourth in the Region 4 final standings.

Note: If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier in weeks 9 and 10, then Moeller would surpass Sycamore and Princeton, and knock Princeton (9-1) down to the #5 seed

9-1 (Win last two games): 27.4000 --> Likely #4 seed
8-2 (Loss v. Lakota East): 25.0000 --> First Round Road Game
8-2 (Loss v. Middletown): 23.8000 --> Possibly Out of Playoffs - Squarely on Bubble
7-3 (Lose last two games) 21.4000 --> Out of Playoff Contention

3. SYCAMORE

Sycamore controls their own destiny for the Region 4 playoffs with very winnable games against Lakota West and Mason to close their season. Sycamore can likely afford a loss against against Lakota West and still qualify with the #6 or #7 seed, but they would be best served by winning out and not dealing with the uncertainty that an 8-2 season would bring. Sycamore will clinch a playoff birth with a win over Lakota West this Friday as listed below.

Note: If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier in weeks 9 and 10, then Moeller would surpass Sycamore and Princeton, and knock Sycamore (9-1) down to the #4 seed

9-1 (Win last two games): 28.6500 --> First Round Home Game - Likely #3 Seed
8-2 (Loss v. Lakota West): 25.0500
--> First Round Road Game
8-2 (Loss v. Mason): 26.8500 --> Potential First Round Home Game --> Squarely on Bubble

2. COLERAIN

Colerain will finish 10-0 with the #2 seed in Region 4. They do not have enough Harbin points to overtake St. Xavier (even @ 8-2). They will also not lose their lead over Sycamore (9-1), since both teams will have defeated six (6) common GMC opponents by the end of the season. (Mason, Middletown, Fairfield, Lakota West, Lakota East, and Oak Hills).

Colerain has not lost a GMC game this millennium, so we're not even going there with the projections.