Joe Harbin's Blog

UPDATE: FINAL REGION 4 HARBINS

2007-10-27T22:42:00.000-04:00

Due To Mission Viejo's (CA) postponement of their game until Monday, October 29 due to the California wildfires, this result will not be included in Moeller's final Harbin rankings. This postponement drops Moeller's divisor from 87 to 86, and increases their total Harbins from 24.4042 to 24.6421, over Northmont at 24.5566.

1. St Xavier
2. Colerain
3. Sycamore
4. Centerville
5. Princeton
6. Moeller
7. Northmont
8. Elder

MATCH-UPS

8. ELDER
1. ST. XAVIER

5. PRINCETON
4. CENTERVILLE

6. MOELLER
3. SYCAMORE

7. NORTHMONT
2. COLERAIN

Region 4 Final Harbins

2007-10-27T00:11:00.000-04:00

You heard it here first on the Prep Sports Radio Network...

1. St Xavier
2. Colerain
3. Sycamore
4. Centerville
5. Princeton
6. Northmont
7. Moeller
8. Elder

HOOVER (ALA) FORFEITS – COLERAIN, SYCAMORE, & MOELLER IMPACT

2007-10-25T00:55:00.000-04:00

In week 2, Colerain defeated Hoover (Alabama) in the Herbstreit Challenge at Nippert Stadium. Since then, Hoover has rebounded for six consecutive wins to bring their record to (6-1). On Wednesday, October 24, 2007, The Birmingham News reported that Hoover would have to forfeit four (4) games for using an ineligible player, thus dropping their record to (2-5).

These forfeitures lower Colerain’s projected final Harbin points from 32.7395 down to 30.2132 Harbin points. This development opens the door for Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) to seriously challenge for the #2 seed in Region 4. It also gives Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) the inside track for the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier in week 10.

Colerain (10-0: 30.2132) would finish with a higher seed than Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Wayne, Hoover, and Clarke Road wins, with Middletown, Mason, Findlay, and Lakewood St. Edward losses… unless otherwise noted below.

*Note: Indianapolis Cathedral has already completed a ten (10) game seaso
*Note: Both Colerain and Moeller have defeated Mason, so the Mason result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another.

*Note: Hamilton plays Fairfield and Lakota West plays Lakota East. Colerain has defeated all four (4) of these D-I teams, so the results of their games will not affect Colerain’s final Harbin point total.

One (1) loss from either Brother Rice or LaSalle AND a Middletown win
Losses from both Brother Rice and LaSalle

Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) would finish with a higher seed than Moeller (7-2: 31.0479) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Withrow, Harrison, and Springboro wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Fairfield, Oak Hills, and Middletown losses.

*Note: Indianapolis Cathedral has already completed a ten (10) game season

*Note: Both Sycamore and Moeller have defeated Mason, so the Mason result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another.

*Note: Lakota West plays Lakota East. Sycamore has defeated both of these D-I teams, so the result of their game will not affect Sycamore’s final Harbin point total.

Two wins combined from Fairfield, Oak Hills, and Middletown
One (1) loss from either Brother Rice or LaSalle AND one win from Fairfield, Oak Hills, or Middletown
Losses from both Brother Rice and LaSalle

Sycamore (9-1: 29.8500) would finish with a higher seed than Colerain (10-0: 30.2132) with the following scenarios:

The base scenario includes Withrow, Harrison, Springboro, Wayne, Hoover, and Clarke Road wins, with Mason, Middletown, Fairfield, and Oak Hills losses… unless otherwise noted.

*Note: Lakota West plays Lakota East. Both Colerain and Sycamore have beaten these D-I teams, so this result will have no impact on these two teams, relative to one another

*Note: Fairfield plays Hamilton. Colerain has defeated both Fairfield and Hamilton, while Sycamore has only defeated Fairfield. If Fairfield defeats Hamilton, this will increase Sycamore’s projected Harbin points by 0.6000, while keeping Colerain’s projected Harbin points the same.

One win from Fairfield or Oak Hills, OR one loss from Wayne, Hoover, or Clarke Road – with all other projections remaining constant

CONCLUSION:

Moeller will likely clinch the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier. Colerain would have the inside track for the #3 seed, but given their very close proximity to Sycamore, they could drop to the #4 seed with results of other games, as listed above.

With a Moeller loss, Colerain would have the inside track for the #2 seed, but again, given their close very proximity to Sycamore, they could drop to the #3 seed with results of other games, as listed above. Moeller would likely have a first round road game, with numerous scenarios detailing their projected finish in the “Moeller (6-3)” post from 10/23/2007.

ELDER - PART III

2007-10-23T22:13:00.000-04:00

CONCLUSION: HERE ARE THE PROJECTED FINISHING POSITIONS FOR ELDER

Elder could finish 5th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne. (Somehow conceivably mathematically possible, but highly, highly unlikely)

Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 6th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 6th if Northmont, Princeton, and Moeller lose, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Elder over Moeller, and would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 7th if Harrison and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Northmont or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 7th if Harrison and Northmont lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Princeton or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 7th if Northmont and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 7th if Northmont and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would lift Elder over Moeller, and would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Harrison loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Princeton, Northmont, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Princeton loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Northmont, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Northmont loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Princeton, or Moeller, but would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Moeller loses, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Harrison, Princeton, or Northmont, but would lift Elder over Moeller and would keep Elder ahead of Wayne.

Elder could finish 8th if Harrison and Princeton lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Northmont or Moeller, and would place Elder behind of Wayne.

Elder could finish 9th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller all win.

Elder could finish 9th if Harrison, Princeton, and Northmont win, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Northmont or Moeller.

Elder could finish 9th if Harrison and Northmont win, Princeton and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, and would place Wayne ahead of Elder.

Elder could finish 9th if Princeton and Northmont win, Harrison and Moeller lose, coupled with other results that would not lift Elder over Moeller, and would place Wayne ahead of Elder.

Elder could finish 10th if Harrison, Princeton, Northmont, and Moeller all win, coupled with other results that would place Wayne ahead of Elder.

Elder could finish 10th if Harrison, Princeton, and Northmont win, Moeller loses, and other results occur that would place Wayne ahead of Elder.

ELDER - PART II

2007-10-23T22:12:00.000-04:00

While Elder fans may be focused on the teams they need to overtake, Elder also needs to be wary of Huber Heights Wayne, projected to finish 10th with 22.0500 Harbin points.

In order to stay ahead of HH Wayne, Elder needs to get Level 2 help from the opponents they have already beaten this season, while at the same time, rooting against HH Wayne getting Level 2 help from their previous opponents. The base scenario includes Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, Northmont, and Springfield North victories, with Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, Cleveland Benedictine, Fairfield, Springfield South, and Kettering Fairmont losses.... unless otherwise noted below.
* Springfield South (D-II) plays Springfield North (D-I). Also, Xenia (D-I) plays Beavercreek (D-I). HH Wayne has beaten all four (4) teams.
Note: Oak Hills (Colerain) and Kettering Fairmont (Centerville) victories are unlikely, and will not be included in scenarios.

The following scenarios will likely determine whether Elder (7-3) finishes ahead of Huber Heights Wayne (7-3). Please note that a Clayton Northmont loss would benefit Elder in two (2) ways, as it would open a playoff spot, and reduce HH Wayne's total Harbin points by 0.5500.

Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.6082]
Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5582]
Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 1.1582]
Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 1.1082]

Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.0082]
Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0418]
Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5582]
Two victories from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, and Moeller AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5082]

One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Wayne + 0.0103]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0603]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5397]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.4897]

One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5567]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.5067]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 1.1067]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield loss, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 1.0567]

One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win and S. North over S. South. [Wayne + 0.0433]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win and S. South over S. North. [Wayne + 0.0933]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. North over S. South. [Elder + 0.5067]
One victory from Lakota West, Charlotte Independence, or Moeller, and a Covington Catholic win, AND Fairfield win, Northmont loss, and S. South over S. North. [Elder + 0.4567]

ELDER - PART I

2007-10-23T20:00:00.000-04:00

Elder is projected to finish 9th in Region 4 with 22.6582 Harbin points. In order to qualify for the playoffs, Elder likely needs Harrison (7-2), Princeton (7-2), Northmont (6-3) to lose, as Elder has only limited opportunities, with significant Level 2 help, to overtake Moeller (@ 6-3) or Northmont (@ 7-3). Barring an Oak Hills win over Colerain, Elder cannot overtake Princeton without a Princeton loss. Elder also cannot overtake Harrison without a Harrison loss.

Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) could finish with a higher seed than Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) with the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Lakota West, and Charlotte Independence wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine losses... unless otherwise noted below.
*Mason and Oak Hills victories are unlikely and will not be included in scenarios.

Brother Rice and LaSalle losses AND either a Covington Catholic or Cleveland Benedictine win
A Brother Rice or LaSalle loss AND both a Covington Catholic and Cleveland Benedictine win

Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) could finish with a higher seed than Northmont (7-3 - 24.5566) with the following scenario. The base scenario includes Chaminade-Julienne, Miamisburg, Troy, Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine losses, with Sidney, Lakota West, and Charlotte Independence wins... unless otherwise noted below.
Note: Butler plays Trotwood-Madison. Northmont has beaten both D-II teams.

Sidney loss AND Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine wins

MOELLER (6-3)

2007-10-23T18:43:00.000-04:00

While Moeller (6-2) has virtually guaranteed a playoff spot, even with a loss in Week 10 to St. Xavier, their final seeding is far from determined, as Moeller is projected to finish with 24.4042 Harbin points and could finish anywhere from 5th to 9th (See Elder post).

Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Harrison (8-2 - 26.5000) with a Harrison loss, or the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Talawanda, Glen Este, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Oak Hills, Northwest, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses... unless otherwise noted (Cathedral & East Central have already completed a 10-game schedules.
Note: Loveland plays Milford. Harrison has beaten both D-I teams.

Talawanda and Glen Este losses AND two (2) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward
Talawanda or Glen Este losses AND three (3) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward

Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Princeton (8-2 - 25.6000) with a Princeton loss, or the following scenario. The base scenario includes Centerville, Lakota West, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Western Hills, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses.
Note: Hamilton plays Fairfield and Sycamore plays Mason. Princeton has beaten all four (4) D-I teams.
*A Centerville loss, and wins from either Western Hills or Mason are unlikely and will not be included in scenarios .

A Lakota West loss AND a Lakewood St. Edward win. (A Lakota West loss with Findlay win would keep Princeton over Moeller by 0.0211 Harbin points)

Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a higher seed than Northmont (7-3 - 24.5566) with a Northmont loss, or the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Sidney, Brother Rice, and LaSalle wins, with Chaminade-Julienne, Miamisburg, Troy, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses.
Note: Butler plays Trotwood-Madison. Northmont has beaten both D-II teams.

A Sidney loss OR one (1) win from Mason, Findlay, or St. Edward
A Sidney win AND one (1) win from Mason, Findlay, or St. Edward.
A Sidney win and one (1) win from C-J, Miamisburg, or Troy AND two (2) wins from Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward.

Moeller (6-3 - 24.4042) could finish with a lower seed than Elder (7-3 - 22.6582) with the following scenarios. The base scenario includes Brother Rice, LaSalle, Lakota West, and Charlotte Independence wins, with Mason, Findlay, Lakewood St. Edward, Oak Hills, Moeller, Covington Catholic, and Cleveland Benedictine losses.
*Mason and Oak Hills victories are highly unlikely and will not be included in scenarios.

Brother Rice and LaSalle losses AND either a Covington Catholic or Cleveland Benedictine win
A Brother Rice or LaSalle loss AND both a Covington Catholic and Cleveland Benedictine win

CONCLUSION:

Moeller will finish ahead of Harrison, Princeton, or Northmont, if any of those teams loses in week 10. Therefore Moeller could finish with the #5 seed with Harrison, Princeton, and Northmont losses.

*Please note that there are many possible scenarios for each team, and the scenarios listed below are not all-inclusive. To include all scenarios would be mind-numbing for you... and especially for me.

Moeller could also finish with the #5 seed with a Harrison loss, and coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would lift Moeller over both Princeton and Northmont

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over both Princeton and Northmont

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with other results Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Northmont, but not over Princeton.

Moeller could finish with the #6 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with other results Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Princeton, but not over Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Northmont, but not over Princeton.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with Level 2 help that would lift Moeller over Princeton, but not over Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #7 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below both Princeton and Northmont.

Moeller could finish with the #8 seed with a Harrison win, coupled with with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below both Princeton and Northmont, but ahead of Elder.

Moeller could finish with the #8 seed with a Harrison loss, coupled with with Level 2 results that would keep Moeller below Princeton, Northmont, and Elder.

MOELLER (7-2)

2007-10-23T17:31:00.000-04:00

While Moeller (6-2) has likely already clinched a spot in the Region 4 playoffs, they can earn a first round home game with a win over St. Xavier (9-0) in week 10. With a win over St. Xavier, Moeller is projected to finish with 31.0479 Harbin points, which would likely place them 3rd in Region 4. This would likely put them above Sycamore (29.8500), cost Centerville (26.9000) and Harrison (26.5000) their shot at a first round home playoff game, and put Moeller just behind Colerain (32.7395) for the #2 seed.

For Moeller to overtake Colerain for the #2 seed, the following scenarios would have to occur. These projections include HH Wayne, Hoover, Clarke Road, Brother Rice and LaSalle victories, with Mason, Middletown, Findlay, and St. Edward losses... unless otherwise noted (Cathedral has already completed 10 games).

Three (3) losses from HH Wayne, Hoover and Clarke Road
Two (2) losses from HH Wayne, Hoover and Clarke Road AND a Findlay or St. Edward win
One (1) loss from HH Wayne, Hoover or Clarke Road AND wins from Findlay and St. Edward

For Moeller to fall below Sycamore to the #4 seed, the following scenarios would have to occur. These projections include Withrow, Springboro, Harrison, Brother Rice and LaSalle wins, with Fairfield, Oak Hills, Middletown, Mason, Findlay, and St. Edward losses... unless otherwise noted (Cathedral has already completed 10 games).

Two (2) wins from Fairfield, Oak Hills, and Middletown
One win from Fairfield, Oak Hills, or Middletown AND a LaSalle or Brother Rice loss

CONCLUSION:

Moeller will finish with the #2 seed with a win over St. Xavier, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that will lift them over Colerain.

Moeller will finish with the #3 seed with a win over St. Xavier if they do not get enough Level 2 help to lift them over Colerain, but get enough Level 2 help to keep them ahead of Sycamore.

Moeller will finish with the #4 seed with a win over St. Xavier if they do not get enough Level 2 help to lift them over Colerain or keep them ahead of Sycamore.

EXTENSIVE ELDER & MOELLER UPDATES FORTHCOMING

2007-10-22T00:25:00.000-04:00

Stay tuned...

HARRISON - UPDATE

2007-10-21T13:38:00.000-04:00

As listed in a previous post, Harrison controls their own destiny for a Region 4 playoff spot. With a win, they will clinch either the #4 or #5 seed. With a loss, they are likely out of the playoffs, barring a Northmont loss and other upsets.

Centerville is projected to finish #4 with 26.9000 Harbin points and Harrison (8-2) is projected to finish with 26.5000 points. These projections include Northmont, Wayne, Talawanda, and Glen Este wins, with Lakota East, Oak Hills, and Northwest losses.

Harrison's best chance for a home game would likely come from a Lakota East loss, coupled with Glen Este and Northwest wins. If Lakota East wins, or either Glen Este or Northwest lose, then Centerville can virtually clinch the #4 seed, with Harrison finishing #5.

Since these two teams are separated by only 0.4 points, this means that it would only take one game to go against the projection for Harrison to overtake Centerville for the #4 seed. With that said, it appears that Centerville has the inside track for the #4 seed over Harrison.

NORTHMONT

2007-10-21T12:40:00.000-04:00

Clayton Northmont controls their own destiny for a position in the Region 4 playoffs. With a win over Piqua in week 10, Northmont will guarantee themselves a road game in the first round of the playoffs, with their seeding determined by the results of other games.

Northmont is projected to finish with 24.5566 Harbin points and the #7 seed, just below Princeton @ 25.6000 and Moeller (6-3) @ 24.4042. With that noted, Northmont could finish as high as the #5 seed with a Harrison loss and results listed in the Princeton post. Conversely, Northmont could drop below Moeller with a Moeller victory over St. Xavier, or the scenarios listed below (Projections include Troy and Mason losses, and Brother Rice and LaSalle wins):

Two losses from C-J, Miamisburg, and Sidney AND either a Findlay or St. Edward win
Three losses from C-J, Miamisburg, and Sidney
C-J loss AND Findlay and St. Edward wins
Miamisburg loss AND a St. Edward win

In conclusion, here's a Northmont summary:

Northmont could finish with the #5 seed with Harrison and Moeller losses, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would lift Northmont over Princeton and keep them ahead of Moeller.

Northmont could finish with the #6 seed if Harrison wins, Moeller loses, and Northmont gets Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton and ahead of Moeller.

Northmont could also finish with the #6 seed if Harrison and Moeller lose, and Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton, but does get enough help to keep them ahead of Moeller.

Northmont could further finish with the #6 seed if Harrison loses, Moeller wins, and Northmont gets Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton.

Northmont could finish with the #7 seed if Harrison wins, Moeller loses, and Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton, but does get enough help to keep them ahead of Moeller.

Northmont could also finish with the #7 seed if Harrison loses, Moeller wins, and Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton.

Northmont could finish with the #8 seed if Harrison and Moeller win and Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton.

Northmont could also finish with the #8 seed if Harrison wins, Moeller loses, Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to lift them over Princeton, and Northmont does not get the Level 2 help to keep them ahead of Moeller.

Finally, Northmont could finish out of the playoffs... if they lose.

MY HEAD HURTS.

PRINCETON - UPDATED

2007-10-21T12:09:00.000-04:00

While Princeton's loss to Lakota East on Friday night cost them a first round home game, Princeton still will clinch a playoff spot with a week 10 victory over Middletown.

With a win over Middletown, Princeton is projected to finish with 25.6000 Harbin points and the #6 seed, just ahead of Northmont and Moeller.

Princeton can clinch a higher seed than Northmont with the following results (Already projecting a Centerville win and a Troy loss to Wayne):

Lakota West over Lakota East AND a Chaminade-Julienne, Miamisburg or Sidney loss.
Lakota West loss to Lakota East AND a combination of two losses from C-J, Miamisburg, and Sidney.

Princeton can clinch a higher seed than Moeller (6-3) with the following results (projecting Centerville and Brother Rice wins, and a Mason loss to Sycamore)

Lakota West over Lakota East AND either a Lakewood St. Edward or Findlay loss
Lakota West loss to Lakota East AND a Lakewood St. Edward loss

***UPDATE: Here is the Princeton Summary:

Princeton can clinch the #5 seed with Harrison and Moeller losses, coupled with other results (Level 2 help) that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can clinch the #6 seed with a Harrison loss, Moeller win, and Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can also clinch the #6 seed with a Harrison win, Moeller loss, and Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can clinch the #7 seed with Harrison and Moeller wins, and Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can also clinch the #7 seed with a Harrison loss, Moeller win, and with Princeton not receiving the Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can also clinch the #7 seed with a Harrison win, Moeller loss, and with Princeton not receiving the Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton can clinch the #8 seed with Harrison and Moeller wins, and with Princeton not receiving the Level 2 help that would keep Princeton ahead of Northmont.

Princeton likely will miss the playoffs... if they lose.

RADIO APPEARANCE

2007-10-20T00:29:00.000-04:00

For additional information concerning my Region 4 Harbin Projections, please listen to my guest appearance on the Prep Sports Radio Network's broadcast of the Cleveland Benedictine v. Elder game Saturday night beginning at 7:00, airing on AM 740, Sacred Heart Radio.

HARRISON 24, GLEN ESTE 21

2007-10-19T23:49:00.000-04:00

Harrison's Thursday night victory kept their hopes alive for a Region 4 playoff spot, while effectively eliminating Glen Este from contention. Next week, Harrison plays Anderson at Paul Brown Stadium with their playoff hopes on the line. If Harrison defeats Anderson (and snaps their 5-game series losing streak), they will likely play Centerville in the first round of the playoffs.

If Harrison loses to Anderson, they are very likely out of playoff contention, since they will have been leapfrogged by both Elder and Huber Heights Wayne and likely be relegated to the #10 position in Region 4.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Harrison defeats Anderson and finishes with the #5 seed.

CENTERVILLE 42, SPRINGFIELD SOUTH 0

2007-10-19T23:34:00.000-04:00

Centerville's 42-point pasting of South tonight virtually guaranteed Centerville a Region 4 playoff spot. Barring a Centerville loss, coupled with a host of upsets in other games, Centerville will be playing in week 11.

Almost as importantly, Centerville's win tonight, along with Princeton's loss, puts Centerville in prime position to land the #4 seed and a first round home playoff game. While projected to beat out Harrison (8-2) for the #4 seed by 0.4000 Harbin points, Centerville appears to have the inside track for the #4 seed. The key game for Centerville and Harrison fans to watch will be Northwest v. Ross. A Ross win will put Centerville in line for the #4 seed, while conversely, a Northwest win will put Harrison in the driver's seat.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Centerville will be the #4 seed in Region 4.

SYCAMORE 23, LAKOTA WEST 7

2007-10-19T23:26:00.000-04:00

Sycamore's win tonight likely ensures that Sycamore will earn the #3 seed in Region 4 with a week 10 win against Middletown. As stated in the previous post, Sycamore will not overtake Colerain for the #2 seed, and Princeton's loss tonight ensures that Sycamore will finish no lower than #3 with a win next week.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Sycamore will finish with the #3 seed in Region 4.

COLERAIN 35, HAMILTON 7

2007-10-19T23:22:00.000-04:00

Colerain rolled through Hamilton Friday night, and will cruise to the #2 seed in Region 4 with a win over Oak Hills in Week 10. Since Colerain and Sycamore have six (6) common opponents on their schedule, Sycamore will not be able to overtake Colerain for the #2 seed without a Colerain loss.

Colerain would not surpass St. Xavier for the #1 seed, even if St. Xavier would lose their final two games.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Colerain will be the #2 seed.

LAKOTA EAST 35, PRINCETON 21

2007-10-19T23:15:00.000-04:00

Tonight's big stunner was Lakota East's 35-21 victory at Princeton. While this game has cost Princeton a first round home game, it has not cost them a playoff spot. With a win in their final game against Middletown, Princeton will finish with a projected 25.0000 Harbin points, which will easily qualify them for the playoffs.

Princeton still controls their own playoff destiny, but will definitely be on the road in the first round of the playoffs... assuming they take care of business against Middletown.

At 4-5, Lakota East is out of playoff contention.

MID-WEEK 9 REGION 4 PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS (10/19/2007)

2007-10-19T23:10:00.000-04:00

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1	ST. XAVIER (8-0)	10-0	44.8104
2	COLERAIN (9-0)	10-0	32.1605
3	SYCAMORE (8-1)	9-1	29.8500
4	CENTERVILLE (7-2)	8-2	26.9000
5	HARRISON (7-2)	8-2	26.5000
6	PRINCETON (7-2)	8-2	25.0000
7	NORTHMONT (6-3)	7-3	24.5566
8	MOELLER (5-2)	6-3	24.4042
9	ELDER (5-3)	7-3	22.6582
10	HH WAYNE (7-2)	8-2	22.0500
11	LASALLE (4-5)	5-5	20.2727
12	GLEN ESTE (5-4)	6-4	20.0500

I'M BACK

2007-10-18T17:40:00.001-04:00

After eight weeks spent analyzing the Region 4 Harbins, I'm back with my first projections for the 2007 season.

As always, please note that these are projections, and as we've already seen this year, just one upset could have wide-ranging effects on the Region 4 outlook.

11. HARRISON

2007-10-18T01:00:00.000-04:00

Harrison, currently 6-2, is projected to finish 7-3, with a loss to Glen Este in week 9. Despite being projected to finish 11th in Region 4, Harrison actually controls their own playoff destiny, given the strength of their final two opponents, Glen Este and Anderson. If Harrison defeats both Glen Este and Anderson, they project to finish with 26.5000 Harbin points, which would place them in contention with Centerville and LaSalle for the #5 seed. However, with a loss to either Glen Este or Anderson, Harrison is highly unlikely to qualify for the Region 4 playoffs, as they would need to leapfrog three (3) teams to qualify.

8-2 (Win last two games): 26.5000 --> First Round Road Game --> Likely #5 or #6 seed
7-3 (Loss one of last two): 22.3500 --> Out of Playoffs

10. ELDER

2007-10-18T00:50:00.000-04:00

Elder is currently projected to finish 7-3 and finish 10th in Region 4. In order to qualify for the playoffs, Elder will need significant help in the form of losses from the teams currently projected ahead of them in the final Region 4 standings. Due to the significant difference between Moeller, projected 8th with 24.3076 Harbin points and Elder, projected 10th with 22.6582, it does not appear that Elder can overtake Moeller purely with changes to the projected Level 2 Harbin points over the last two weeks.

Therefore, Elder fans should be rooting for two (2) the following four (4) scenarios to come to fruition in order to put their team squarely on the bubble for qualification in the Region 4 Playoffs:

Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9) or Piqua over Northmont (Week 10)
Lakewood St. Edward over Moeller (Week 9) & St. Xavier over Moeller (Week 10)

4a. Winton Woods over Glen Este (Week 10 - If Glen Este defeats Harrison in Week 9)
4b. Anderson over Harrison (Week 10 - If Harrison defeats Glen Este in Week 9)

Elder has their work cut out for them from a Harbin prospective over the last two weeks, and even with substantial help, as listed above, could find themselves on the outside looking in.

9. GLEN ESTE

2007-10-18T00:43:00.000-04:00

Glen Este (5-3) must win its last two games against Harrison and Winton Woods to put themselves in a position where they are on the bubble for a Region 4 playoff birth.

Glen Este is projected at 7-3 to finish 9th in Region 4, only 0.2467 behind Moeller at 6-3 for the 8th and final playoff spot. Given the number of games left in the season that comprise the Level 2 Harbin points, Glen Este has a very legitimate chance of overtaking a 6-3 Moeller team, if Glen Este finishes 7-3.

Glen Este can clinch a playoff spot with a 7-3 record if any of the following realistic scenarios occur:

Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9) or Piqua over Northmont (Week 10)
Lakewood St. Edward over Moeller (Week 9) & St. Xavier over Moeller (Week 10)

8. MOELLER

2007-10-18T00:29:00.001-04:00

Moeller (5-2) enters its final two games versus Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier needing one (1) win to put them squarely on the bubble for a Region 4 playoff birth.

With a win over Lakewood St. Edward, Moeller projects to finish 8th in Region 4 by 0.2467 over a Glen Este team projected to finish 7-3 with wins over Harrison and Winton Woods to end their season. If Harrison defeats Glen Este, then defeats Anderson in Week 10, this would take Glen Este out of the playoff picture, but would also leapfrog Harrison into the playoffs, and leave Moeller and Northmont to contend for the #8 seed.

Moeller fans should root for any of the following realistic scenarios to likely clinch Region 4 playoff qualification with a 6-3 record:

Columbus St. Francis De Sales over LaSalle (Week 9)
Trotwood-Madison over Northmont (Week 9)
Piqua over Northmont (Week 9)
Winton Woods over Glen Este (Week 10 - If Glen Este defeats Harrison in Week 9)
Anderson over Harrison (Week 10 - If Harrison defeats Glen Este in Week 9)

If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier, they will qualify as the #3 seed in Region 4 and host a First Round Home Game.

7. NORTHMONT

2007-10-18T00:20:00.000-04:00

Clayton Northmont is 5-3 and must win their final two games against Trotwood-Madison and Piqua in order to put themselves in good position to qualify for the Region 4 playoffs. Winning these two games would put Northmont in very good position for a playoff birth, but given the close proximity of Moeller, and the winner of Thursday night's Glen Este v. Harrison match-up, Northmont is not in position to control their own destiny at this point.

7-3 (Win last two games): 24.6071 --> Likely First Round Road Playoff Game --> #7 or #8 Seed
6-4 (Loss v. Trotwood): 20.0672 --> Out of Playoff Contention
6-4 (Loss v. Piqua): 19.5116 --> Out of Playoff Contention

6. LASALLE

2007-10-18T00:16:00.000-04:00

At 4-4, LaSalle must win its last two games against Columbus St. Francis De Sales and Dayton Colonel White to finish 6-4 and qualify for the Region 4 playoffs. At 6-4, LaSalle likely will be either the #5 or #6 seed, depending on how their Level 2 Harbin points compare with Centerville.

6-4 (Win last two games): 26.0289 --> First Round Road Game --> Likely #5 or #6
5-5 (Loss v. Cols De Sales): 20.2727 --> Out of Playoff Contention

5. CENTERVILLE

2007-10-17T21:16:00.000-04:00

After defeating Huber Heights Wayne in overtime in Week 8, Centerville will clinch a playoff birth by winning its final two games against Springfield South (1-7) and Kettering Fairmont (3-5). Centerville will likely finish either 5th or 6th in Region 4 with an 8-2 record but could slide up to the #4 spot with either a Sycamore or Princeton loss.

Note: Centerville will be in a very close race with LaSalle for the #5 spot if both teams win their last two games, as they are projected to be separated by less than 0.3 Harbin points.

8-2 (Win last two games): 26.3000 --> Clinch Playoff Spot --> Likely #5 or #6 seed
7-3 (Loss v. K. Fairmont): 23.3500 --> Likely on Outside Looking In --> Need Help

4. PRINCETON

2007-10-17T20:57:00.000-04:00

Princeton has rolled through GMC competition this year, and if they take care of business against Lakota East and Middletown to end the season, they will likely finish fourth in the Region 4 final standings.

Note: If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier in weeks 9 and 10, then Moeller would surpass Sycamore and Princeton, and knock Princeton (9-1) down to the #5 seed

9-1 (Win last two games): 27.4000 --> Likely #4 seed
8-2 (Loss v. Lakota East): 25.0000 --> First Round Road Game
8-2 (Loss v. Middletown): 23.8000 --> Possibly Out of Playoffs - Squarely on Bubble
7-3 (Lose last two games) 21.4000 --> Out of Playoff Contention

3. SYCAMORE

2007-10-17T20:48:00.000-04:00

Sycamore controls their own destiny for the Region 4 playoffs with very winnable games against Lakota West and Mason to close their season. Sycamore can likely afford a loss against against Lakota West and still qualify with the #6 or #7 seed, but they would be best served by winning out and not dealing with the uncertainty that an 8-2 season would bring. Sycamore will clinch a playoff birth with a win over Lakota West this Friday as listed below.

Note: If Moeller defeats both Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier in weeks 9 and 10, then Moeller would surpass Sycamore and Princeton, and knock Sycamore (9-1) down to the #4 seed

9-1 (Win last two games): 28.6500 --> First Round Home Game - Likely #3 Seed
8-2 (Loss v. Lakota West): 25.0500 --> First Round Road Game
8-2 (Loss v. Mason): 26.8500 --> Potential First Round Home Game --> Squarely on Bubble

2. COLERAIN

2007-10-17T20:28:00.000-04:00

Colerain will finish 10-0 with the #2 seed in Region 4. They do not have enough Harbin points to overtake St. Xavier (even @ 8-2). They will also not lose their lead over Sycamore (9-1), since both teams will have defeated six (6) common GMC opponents by the end of the season. (Mason, Middletown, Fairfield, Lakota West, Lakota East, and Oak Hills).

Colerain has not lost a GMC game this millennium, so we're not even going there with the projections.

1. ST. XAVIER

2007-10-17T20:21:00.000-04:00

St. Xavier has clinched the #1 seed in Region 4, and likely will dwarf the other Region 4 contenders in total Harbin points, as they are on pace for a 10-0 season with 44.7583 points.

10-0 (Win last 2 games): 44.7583 points
9-1 (Loss to St. Ignatius): 39.2625 points
9-1 (Loss to Moeller): 40.4624 points
8-2 (Lose last 2 games): 34.9646 points

RADIO APPEARANCE

2007-10-17T00:25:00.000-04:00

I will be on with the guys from The Prep Sports Radio Network broadcasting on Sacred Heart Radio (740 AM) during the Cleveland Benedictine vs. Elder game on Saturday, October 20, 2007.

By Saturday, I will have Friday's results updated into my projections and will likely have a good sense of which teams are going to qualify for the playoffs, and where they're likely to be seeded.

2007 WEEK 9 REGION 4 PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

2007-10-17T00:15:00.000-04:00

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	44.7583
2	COLERAIN	10-0	31.5289
3	SYCAMORE	9-1	28.6500
4	PRINCETON	9-1	27.4000
5	CENTERVILLE	8-2	26.3000
6	LASALLE	6-4	26.0289
7	NORTHMONT	7-3	24.6071
8	MOELLER	6-3	24.3467
9	GLEN ESTE	7-3	24.1000
10	ELDER	7-3	22.6582
11	HARRISON	7-3	22.3500
12	HH WAYNE	8-2	21.5000

PROJECTED REGION 4 FINAL STANDINGS

2006-10-25T18:50:00.000-04:00

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1	ST. XAVIER	8-1	39.4575
2	COLERAIN	10-0	35.3367
3	SYCAMORE	9-1	32.1000
4	NORTHMONT	8-2	30.7621
5	GLEN ESTE	8-2	28.0000
6	HH WAYNE	7-2	24.1055
7	MOELLER	5-4	23.2184
8	LAKOTA WEST	8-2	22.7092
9	CENTERVILLE	8-2	22.7500
10	ANDERSON	7-3	20.9500
11	ELDER	6-4	19.4958

JOIN ME AT OASIS!

2006-10-25T18:44:00.000-04:00

Join me Friday night at Oasis Bar and Grill after the Elder-Western Hills game as the Prep Sports Radio Network will be the first Cincinnati media outlet to unveil the Region 4 playoff standings live on AM 1050 WCVX.

Mark Bengel, Steve Bengel, and Tom Kennedy will break down the Elder vs. Western Hills game before PSRN reveals the top 8 in Region 4.

See you there!

How Sycamore Can Clinch The #3 Seed

2006-10-24T23:13:00.000-04:00

Sycamore can clinch the #2 seed with a win over Milford and a Colerain loss to Oak Hills.

Sycamore can clinch the #3 seed in the following circumstances, all assuming a Sycamore win over Milford.

1. A Northmont loss to Piqua

2. A Northmont win and 2 of the following:
a. A Withrow win over Woodward
b. A Springboro win over Fairborn
c. A Harrison win over Anderson
d. An Oak Hills win over Colerain
e. A Lakota West win over Lakota East
f. A Hamilton win over Fairfield
g. An Alter win over Chaminade-Julienne
h. A Taft win over LaSalle
i. A Fairmont win over Centerville
j. A Lebanon win over Miamisburg
k. A Wayne win over Troy

How Colerain Can Grab The #1 Seed From St. Xavier

2006-10-24T22:52:00.000-04:00

1. A Moeller win over St. Xavier, a Colerain win over Oak Hills, and 4 of the following:
a. Troy win over Wayne
b. Highlands win over CovCath
c. Western Hills win over Elder
d. Taft win over LaSalle
e. Mason win over Loveland
f. Brookhaven win over Mifflin
g. Cardinal O'Hara (PA) win over Roman Catholic (PA) --> Saturday
h. Princeton over Middletown
i. Sycamore over Milford

How St. Xavier Can Clinch The #1 Seed

2006-10-24T22:41:00.000-04:00

St. Xavier can clinch the #1 Seed in Region 4 through the following Scenarios:

1. A St. Xavier win over Moeller

2. A Colerain loss to Oak Hills

3. A St. Xavier loss to Moeller, a Colerain win over Oak Hills, and 6 of the following:
a. Wayne win over Troy
b. CovCath win over Highlands
c. Elder win over Western Hills
d. LaSalle win over Taft
e. Loveland win over Mason
f. Mifflin win over Brookhaven
g. Roman Catholic (PA) win over Cardinal O'Hara (Saturday)
h. Middletown win over Princeton
i. Milford over Sycamore

5 Ways Centerville Can Grab A Playoff Spot Over Lakota West

2006-10-24T22:37:00.000-04:00

This response is in reply to a great question by elksone who wanted to know what it would take for Centerville to make the playoffs.

The following circumstances will get Centerville in the playoffs over Lakota West. Each scenario assumes a Centerville win this week.

1. A Lakota West loss to Lakota East

2. A Princeton win over Middletown AND a Springfield South win over Springfield North, plus 1 of the following:
a. Fairfield win over Hamilton
b. St. Xavier over Moeller
c. Milford over Sycamore
d. Winton Woods over Glen Este
e. Wayne over Troy

3. A Princeton win over Middletown AND a Springfield North win over Springfield South, plus 2 of the following:
a. Fairfield win over Hamilton
b. St. Xavier over Moeller
c. Milford over Sycamore
d. Winton Woods over Glen Este
e. Wayne over Troy

4. A Middletown win over Princeton AND a Springfield South win over Springfield North, plus 3 of the following:
a. Fairfield win over Hamilton
b. St. Xavier over Moeller
c. Milford over Sycamore
d. Winton Woods over Glen Este
e. Wayne over Troy

5. A Middletown win over Princeton AND a Springfield North win over Springfield South, plus 4 of the following:
a. Fairfield win over Hamilton
b. St. Xavier over Moeller
c. Milford over Sycamore
d. Winton Woods over Glen Este
e. Wayne over Troy

Harbin Projections After Week 9

2006-10-22T00:38:00.000-04:00

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1	ST. XAVIER	8-1	39.4575
2	COLERAIN	10-0	35.3367
3	SYCAMORE	9-1	32.1000
4	NORTHMONT	8-2	30.7621
5	GLEN ESTE	8-2	28.0000
6	HH WAYNE	7-2	24.1055
7	MOELLER	5-4	23.2184
8	LAKOTA WEST	8-2	22.7092
9	CENTERVILLE	8-2	22.0658
10	ANDERSON	7-3	20.9500
11	ELDER	6-4	19.4958

Podcast from Prep Sports Radio Network Wrap-Up Show

2006-10-14T14:49:00.000-04:00

First with Region 4 projections live on the Prep Sports Radio Network last night (10/13).

Download podcast!

More podcasts to follow...

REGION 4 PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS - WEEK 8

2006-10-14T01:43:00.000-04:00

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1	ST. XAVIER	8-1	39.4575
2	COLERAIN	10-0	35.3367
3	GLEN ESTE	9-1	31.2000
4	SYCAMORE	9-1	30.9000
5	NORTHMONT	8-2	30.0551
6	HH WAYNE	7-2	24.7235
7	MOELLER	5-4	23.2184
8	ANDERSON	8-2	23.1500
9	LAKOTA WEST	8-2	22.7092
10	CENTERVILLE	8-2	22.1184
11	ELDER	6-4	19.496
12	LASALLE	5-5	18.7694

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS - WEEK 7 - UPDATE

2006-10-10T23:01:00.000-04:00

REGION 4
1	ST. XAVIER	8-1	41.4575
2	GLEN ESTE	10-0	36.8500
3	COLERAIN	10-0	35.3367
4	HH WAYNE	8-1	31.2890
5	SYCAMORE	9-1	30.2500
6	NORTHMONT	8-2	30.0045
7	LASALLE	6-4	24.8286
8	ELDER	7-3	24.1625
9	LAKOTA WEST	8-2	23.9337
10	MOELLER	5-4	23.7931
11	WITHROW	9-1	22.9000
12	CENTERVILLE	7-3	17.7289

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS - WEEK 7

2006-10-07T16:09:00.000-04:00

REGION 4
1	ST. XAVIER	8-1	42.1634
2	COLERAIN	10-0	35.6465
3	GLEN ESTE	9-1	32.6247
4	HH WAYNE	8-1	31.2328
5	NORTHMONT	8-2	30.4591
6	SYCAMORE	9-1	29.6500
7	LASALLE	6-4	24.7776
8	LAKOTA WEST	8-2	24.5459
9	ELDER	7-3	24.1625
10	MOELLER	5-4	23.5606
11	WITHROW	9-1	22.9000
12	CENTERVILLE	7-3	18.2125

Stout Defense Keys Elder Victory

2006-08-27T13:52:00.000-04:00

Elder rallied from a 3-0 halftime deficit for a 13-3 win over the Covington Catholic Colonels in the 9^th Annual Skyline Chili Crosstown Showdown. CovCath drove into the Elder red-zone four times, but on each occasion, the Elder defense rose up and kept CovCath out of the endzone. Senior quarterback Derrick Ventre and senior running back Pat Williams led Elder offensively in the victory.

The Elder defense had their feet put to the fire after only one play into the season as CovCath forced a turnover at the Elder 33-yard line. CovCath drove seven plays to the Elder 3-yard line, but junior running back Brent Buckley was stopped for no gain by a host of Elder defenders on a crucial 3^rd and 2. CovCath settled for a 20-yard field goal and took a 3-0 lead less than four minutes into the game. After the field goal, the defenses from both teams took over for the rest of the half. The Elder defense forced three CovCath punts and didn’t allow the Colonels to cross midfield. For their part, the CovCath defense forced three punts of their own and ended Elder’s most promising drive by tipping and intercepting a Ventre pass late in the half.

CovCath received the second half kickoff and came out firing in their opening drive. Quarterback Josh Bessler drove the Colonels 74 yards on six plays with passes to tight ends Alex Wise and Peter Sutton and was helped by a 15-yard roughing the passer penalty on the Elder defense. From the Elder 13-yard line, Wise rushed eight yards to the Elder 5-yard line where he fumbled after a hit from Elder senior defensive back Ross Metz. Elder recovered the ball at their own 2-yard line to stop the drive.

On the ensuing drive, Elder kept the ball on the ground, rushing seven consecutive times before facing a 4^th and 1 from their own 49-yard line. Ventre’s quarterback keeper was stopped short of the marker and CovCath took over possession inside Elder territory. The Elder defense was once again up to the challenge, this time wasting no time getting the ball back to the offense. On the first play of the drive, Metz forced another CovCath fumble that was recovered by junior linebacker Steve Hengehold on the Elder 38-yard line. Elder seized this momentum and drove 62 yards on eight plays, mixing the run and the pass. Ventre rushed eleven yards for a first down, and kept the drive alive by completing passes of sixteen and eighteen yards to Nick Olthaus and T.J. Ramstetter. The drive was culminated with a 12-yard touchdown pass from Ventre to Kyle Rudolph on the only third-down of the drive. After the PAT failed, Elder led 6-3 with just over two minutes left in the third quarter.

Elder kicker Ben Van Olfen boomed the ensuing kickoff into the endzone, forcing CovCath to start their drive at their own 20-yard line, and directly in front of the Elder student section. The CovCath drive went backwards as the Elder defense fed off the crowd noise and a CovCath false start penalty. After a CovCath punt on fourth and long, Elder took over possession at the CovCath 48-yard line with a chance to add to their lead. Ventre remained perfect through the air in the second half, completing a shovel pass to sophomore Jabare Battle, and two passes to Olthaus. On 2^nd and Goal from the CovCath 2-yard line, Williams ran untouched off left-tackle into the endzone for an Elder touchdown. Van Olfen added the extra point, and Elder led 13-3.

Trailing by ten points in the fourth quarter, CovCath opened up the offense on their next drive. The Colonels drove 65 yards to the Elder 10-yard line on nine plays, keyed by a 20-yard pass from Bleser to Kurt Bovard. With CovCath driving deep into the Elder red zone, the Elder student section and fan base rose as one, contributing to back-to-back CovCath false start penalties. Now facing a 1^st and 20 from the Elder 20-yard line, CovCath lost a fumble in their backfield that was recovered by Elder junior linebacker Ricky Otis with six minutes remaining.

Starting from their own 23-yard line, Elder took over four minutes off the clock as they ran the ball exclusively on their drive. Williams ran the ball six times for eighteen yards, but more importantly stayed in bounds on each run to keep the clock running. After a 41-yard punt from senior punter Michael Cooke, CovCath took over from their 18-yard line with under two minutes to play.

From there, Bleser once again drove CovCath deep into Elder territory. Facing 4^th and 10 with under a minute remaining, Bleser connected with Bovard for 27 yards down to the Elder 19-yard line. After the fourth CovCath false start penalty in front of the Elder student section, Metz intercepted a Bleser pass attempt on the 2-yard line to seal the victory for the Panthers.

Game Notes:

§ Elder running back Pat Williams rushed 28 times for 108 yards and one touchdown.

§ Elder quarterback Derrick Ventre completed 10 of 16 passes for 127 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Ventre was perfect through the air in the second half, completing all six pass attempts for 87 yards. Ventre also added 25 yards on the ground on 9 carries.

§ Elder wide receiver Nick Olthaus caught 5 passes for 65 yards.

§ Elder tight end Kyle Rudolph caught 3 passes for 37 yards and one touchdown.

§ Covington Catholic running back Brent Buckley rushed 17 times for 60 yards.

§ Covington Catholic quarterback Josh Bleser completed 13 of 25 passes for 166 yards and one interception.

§ Covington Catholic outgained Elder in total yardage 284-278.

§ Elder punter Michael Cooke averaged 38.5 yards on four punts with a 37.5 net.

§ Elder has a 7-2 Showdown Record.

§ Elder leads Covington Catholic 3-0 in the all-time series.

§ Elder won for the first time when trailing at the half since defeating LaSalle 38-35 at The Pit on September 24, 2004.

FINAL HARBINS

2005-10-29T00:42:00.000-04:00

These would be the Harbin standings with a Highlands win over CovCath Saturday.

1	ST. XAVIER
2	WAYNE
3	CENTERVILLE
4	GLEN ESTE
5	COLERAIN
6	NORTHMONT
7	MOELLER
8	FAIRFIELD

These would be the Harbin standings with a CovCath win over Highlands Saturday.

1	ST. XAVIER
2	WAYNE
3	CENTERVILLE
4	GLEN ESTE
5	NORTHMONT
6	COLERAIN
7	MOELLER
8	FAIRFIELD

In both scenarios, LaSalle, Mason, and Lakota East would finish 9, 10, and 11.

MY FINAL REGION 4 PROJECTIONS

2005-10-28T12:04:00.000-04:00

1. ST. XAVIER---------10-0-----41.3186
2. WAYNE---------------9-1-----32.4500
3. CENTERVILLE---------9-1-----30.0500
4. GLEN ESTE-----------9-1-----27.0500
5. LAKOTA EAST---------8-2-----26.3500
6. COLERAIN------------9-1-----26.1081
7. NORTHMONT-----------8-2-----25.5000
8. MOELLER-------------6-4-----24.7136

9. MASON---------------8-2-----24.1500
10. LASALLE------------8-2-----23.3379
11. FAIRFIELD----------8-2-----22.3000

PREP SPORTS PRIMETIME

2005-10-27T01:37:00.000-04:00

I will be the guest on Prep Sports Primetime this Thursday around 6:30pm on 1360 Homer, The Sports Animal. The show is from 6:00-7:00 live from Champions Grille on the west side. I'll try to explain where teams are going to end up in the playoffs and what needs to happen for teams like Mason and LaSalle to sneak into the playoffs.

JK

MASON & LASALLE

2005-10-27T01:36:00.000-04:00

MASON:

I’ll keep this short and sweet because I’m tired and I need my sleep. Mason will only make the playoffs with help from teams above them. According to the Base Scenario, Mason will finish #9. They will increase by one seed for every Glen Este, Lakota East, Northmont, and Colerain loss in week 10, if any. If Lakota West beats Lakota East, Mason could rise even higher in the final rankings. See previous posts.

Bottom Line: I project Mason to finish #9, as I think that all teams above them will win this weekend.

LASALLE:

LaSalle needs a lot of help to make the playoffs. They need a combination of any two of the following results to occur to make the playoffs: Lakota West over Lakota East, Oak Hills over Colerain, Troy over Northmont, & Winton Woods over Mason.

Bottom Line: I project LaSalle to finish #10, as I think that all teams above them will win this weekend.

MOELLER

2005-10-27T01:35:00.000-04:00

Moeller looks to be in the playoffs regardless of their game against St. Xavier this Friday. Moeller will be fighting with Centerville for the #3 seed if Moeller defeats St. Xavier.

MOELLER OUT OF PLAYOFFS:

SCENARIO 1: St. Xavier over Moeller, Clay over Toledo St. Francis De Sales, Ironton over Columbus St. Francis Desales & ALL 3 OF THE FOLLOWING: Sycamore over Milford, Xenia over Springfield South, & Purcell-Marian over Indian Hill.

MOELLER #3

SCENARIO 1: Moeller over St. Xavier, Middletown over Princeton, Withrow over McNicholas, Toledo St. Francis over Clay, & Columbus St. Francis over Ironton

3. Moeller 30.4652
4. Centerville 30.0500

MOELLER #4

SCENARIO 1: Moeller over St. Xavier & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Princeton over Middletown, McNicholas over Withrow, Clay over Toledo St. Francis De Sales, OR Ironton over Columbus St. Francis Desales

3. Centerville
4. Moeller

If Moeller loses to St. Xavier, they will finish #8 according to the Base Scenario. They will increase one spot for every game that Lakota East, Glen Este, Colerain, and Northmont lose on week 10, if any. Scenarios for the previous teams detail the few ways Moeller could rise to #7 or higher without a loss from one of the previously mentioned teams.

BOTTOM LINE: Moeller is in the playoffs, and will earn a home game with a win over St. Xavier. I project Moeller to finish with the #8 seed and a rematch with St. Xavier in week 11.

NORTHMONT

2005-10-27T01:32:00.000-04:00

Northmont will likely finish with the #7 seed in the region this year with an 8-2 record. If Northmont beats Troy in week 10, they WILL be in the playoffs. Neither Mason nor LaSalle will be able to overtake Northmont with the possibility to knock Northmont out of the playoffs in any scenario. Here is a listing of scenarios and where Northmont will be in them. Each scenario assumes a Northmont win, because a Northmont loss will eliminate them from playoff contention.

NORTHMONT #4 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Harrison over Glen Este, St. Xavier over Moeller, CovCath over Highlands all other games according to Base Scenario

4. Northmont 25.5000
5. Moeller 25.2178
6. Colerain 24.9970
7. Mason 24.7500
8. LaSalle 23.3379
9. Fairfield 22.9000

NORTHMONT #5 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Harrison over Glen Este, St. Xavier over Moeller, all other games according to Base Scenario

4. Colerain 25.5020
5. Northmont 25.5000
6. Mason 24.7500
7. Moeller 24.7136
8. LaSalle 23.3379
9. Fairfield 22.9000

NORTHMONT #6 SEED

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, St. Xavier over Moeller, all other games according to Base Scenario

4. Glen Este 27.0500
5. Colerain 25.5020
6. Northmont 25.5000
7. Mason 24.7500
8. Moeller 24.7136
9. LaSalle 23.3379
10. Fairfield 22.9000

NORTHMONT #8 SEED

SCENARIO 1: Moeller over St. Xavier, all other games according to Base Scenario

SCENARIO 2: Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison & CovCath over Highlands, all other games according to Base Scenario

6. Colerain 25.6030
7. Moeller 25.2178
8. Northmont 24.9000

(Note: Mason cannot overtake Northmont for the #8 seed in any scenario without Lakota West win over Lakota East. A Lakota East loss would knock East out of the playoffs and open up the final spot for Northmont)

Bottom Line: Northmont will be the #7 seed in almost every scenario that doesn’t include either an upset of Glen Este, Lakota East or Colerain, or a Moeller upset of St. Xavier. If Northmont beats Troy, they’re in the playoffs. If they lose, they are out.

BATTLE FOR THE #4 SEED: COLERAIN

2005-10-26T17:45:00.000-04:00

Despite being lower in the week 9 Harbins and lower in my projections, Colerain has a chance of overtaking both Lakota East and Glen Este to claim the #4 seed in Region 4, assuming a Moeller loss. I realize these projection will make your head spin, because they made my head spin, and I came up with them. I think they’re right, and hopefully one of them will come to fruition Friday night and prove to be correct.

COLERAIN #4 SEED:

SCENARIO: Robert E. Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas) OR Hamilton over Fairfield, AND ALL OF THE FOLLOWING (Dixie Heights over Ryle, Withrow over McNicholas, & Mason over Winton Woods)

4. Colerain 26.7141
5. Glen Este 26.4500
6. Lakota East 26.3500

COLERAIN #5 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Tyler Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas), Fairfield over Hamilton, & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 2: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Fairfield over Hamilton & 2 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 3: Lakota West over Lakota East, Tyler Lee (Texas) over Mesquite (Texas), & Hamilton over Fairfield

SCENARIO 4: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Hamilton over Fairfield & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Alter over Chaminade-Julienne, Woodward over LaSalle, Wayne over Sidney, Fairborn over Trotwood-Madison, and Lebanon over Miamisburg)

SCENARIO 5: Lakota East over Lakota West, Highlands over CovCath, & Tyler Lee over Mesquite) & 1 OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, or Milford over Sycamore

SCENARIO 6: Lakota East over Lakota West, Highlands over CovCath, Mesquite over Tyler Lee & 2 OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, or Milford over Sycamore

SCENARIO 7: Lakota East over Lakota West, CovCath over Highlands, Mesquite over Tyler Lee & ALL OF THE FOLLOWING: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, & Milford over Sycamore

COLERAIN #7 SEED:

SCENARIO 1: Lakota West over Lakota East, Mesquite over Tyler Lee, Fairfield over Hamilton, AND 4 OF THE FOLLOWING: Chaminade-Julienne, LaSalle over Woodward, Sidney over Wayne, Trotwood-Madison over Fairborn, AND Miamisburg over Lebanon.

OTHERWISE, COLERAIN WOULD BE THE #6 SEED.

Bottom Line: Scenarios exist for Colerain to finish anywhere from the #4 seed to the #8 seed (Colerain would drop one seed in all the above scenarios if Moeller beats St. Xavier this Friday). I’ll put it bluntly for those of you who don’t feel like digesting all those scenarios.

For Colerain to get a home game, Moeller has to lose to St. Xavier, and a combination of 2 teams that either Glen Este has beaten or Colerain has beaten must have results that differ from my Base Scenario that both benefit Colerain & hurt Glen Este for Colerain to finish #4.
For Colerain to overtake Lakota East, either Lakota East has to lose, or Tyler Lee has to upset Mesquite, or Winton Woods has to knock off Mason with everything else remaining constant. Which on week 10 never happens ;-)

My fearless prediction: Colerain will finish with the #6 seed.

I may get to Northmont, Moeller, Mason, and LaSalle later this week. I’ve gotta study.

BATTLE FOR THE #4 SEED: LAKOTA EAST

2005-10-26T16:42:00.000-04:00

Lakota East is in a rare situation. If they beat rival Lakota West, they will be in position to challenge for the #4 seed in Region 4. If they lose to Lakota West, they will be out of the playoffs.

WOW! I was just crunching the numbers, and I can see no realistic scenario in which Lakota East could overtake Glen Este for the #4 spot short of a Glen Este loss this week. There exists only one possible scenario.

SCENARIO: Dixie Heights over Mason, Withrow over McNicholas + either Oak Hills over Colerain or Hamilton over Fairfield

**There exists far more scenarios that would have Colerain leapfrog Lakota East in the rankings:

SCENARIO 1: Highlands over Covington Catholic & any of the following: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, OR Milford over Sycamore

SCENARIO 2: (Covington Catholic over Highlands) There must be 2 of the following for Colerain to jump over Lakota East: Miamisburg over Lebanon, Winton Woods over Mason, OR Milford over Sycamore

Bottom Line: Lakota East will be on the road or at home in round 1 of the playoffs. I'm still sticking to Lakota East holding off Colerain for the #5 spot, this race is almost too close to call.

THE BATTLE FOR THE #4 SEED: GLEN ESTE

2005-10-26T16:29:00.000-04:00

Glen Este appears to have the inside track for the #4 seed in the playoffs. Likely to finish 9-1 and with wins over Ryle, Lakota East, and Winton Woods to their credit, Glen Este belongs in the playoffs.

As a point of clarification, a team gets 0.60 Harbin points for each division 1 team that one of its opponents beats, 0.55 for D-2, 0.50 for D-3 and so on. For example: if Lakota East (who Glen Este beat earlier in the season) beats Lakota West this week, Glen Este will get 0.6 Harbin points added to their total since Lakota West is a division 1 team. (This assumes a 100 divisor, which most teams in Region 4 have)

If Glen Este wins this week, they will hold off Lakota East for the #4 spot (assuming a Moeller loss). Glen Este will have a more difficult time holding off Colerain, as the Cardinals have the possibilityof more level 2 points not included in my Base Scenario.

Bottom Line: Glen Este will be the #4 seed unless:

Moeller beats St. Xavier (Moeller would be #3 or #4, Glen Este #5)
A combination of two or more games involving Glen Este and Colerain go against Glen Este or for Colerain

CENTERVILLE

2005-10-26T16:20:00.000-04:00

This is where things have the possibility to get dicey. If Centerville defeats Springfield North they WILL have a home game in the first round of the playoffs.

SCENARIO 1: Centerville over North, St. Xavier over Moeller
Centerville would be the #3 seed

SCENARIO 2: Centerville over North, Moeller over St. Xavier
3. Moeller 30.4652
4. Centerville 30.0500
Centerville could very easily leapfrog Moeller depending on the level 2 points from week 10's games. This scenario is just too close to call

SCENARIO 3: Springfield North over Centerville
3. Centerville 27.15
4. Glen Este 27.0500
5. Lakota East 26.3500
6. Colerain 26.1081
If Centerville lost to Springfield North, they would probably still get a home game, but would be within .1000 of falling below Glen Este and into the fray with Lakota East and Colerain for the final home game.

Bottom Line: If Centerville defeats Springfield North, they will be hosting a playoff game, likely sitting at the #3 seed.

ST. XAVIER & WAYNE

2005-10-26T16:16:00.000-04:00

St. Xavier and Wayne will finish #1 and #2 regardless of the outcome of their respective games this week. If Wayne loses, which is highly unlikely, they will have just enough points to hold off Centerville, and Moeller if Moeller knocks off St. Xavier.

1. St. Xavier
2. Huber Heights Wayne

UPDATE

2005-10-26T16:14:00.000-04:00

School has been really busy lately, and looks to stay that way through the end of the week, so this may be one of the last series of updates before Friday's games. I will go team-by-tem and give scenarios for what needs to happen for each team to finish where.

JK

THANKS

2005-10-25T20:59:00.000-04:00

I would like to say thanks to everyone who has visited my site throughout the past few weeks. I hope that you have enjoyed the site and have found it informative. At this time, I would like to ask that if you get information from the site that you source the information. I realize this isn't widespread, but I thought it was an issue that needed to be addressed.

Thanks,

JK

LAKOTA WEST OVER LAKOTA EAST; TROY OVER NORTHMONT

2005-10-24T17:09:00.000-04:00

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.3186
2	WAYNE	9-1	31.8500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	29.4500
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	26.4500
5	COLERAIN	9-1	25.5020
6	MASON	8-2	24.7500
7	MOELLER	6-4	24.7136
8	LASALLE	8-2	23.3379
9	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.9000
10	LAKOTA EAST	7-3	22.1500
11	NORTHMONT	7-3	20.9500

TROY OVER CLAYTON NORTHMONT

2005-10-24T16:59:00.000-04:00

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.3186
2	WAYNE	9-1	31.8500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	29.4500
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
5	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
6	COLERAIN	9-1	26.1081
7	MOELLER	6-4	24.7136
8	MASON	8-2	24.1500
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.3379
10	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000
11	NORTHMONT	7-3	20.9500

SCENARIO 3: LAKOTA WEST OVER LAKOTA EAST

2005-10-24T16:54:00.000-04:00

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.3186
2	WAYNE	9-1	32.4500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.1000
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	26.4500
5	COLERAIN	9-1	25.5020
6	NORTHMONT	8-2	25.5000
7	MASON	8-2	27.7500
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.7136

9	LASALLE	8-2	23.3379
10	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.9000
11	LAKOTA EAST	7-3	22.1500

SCENARIO 2: MOELLER OVER ST. XAVIER

2005-10-24T16:48:00.000-04:00

1	ST. XAVIER	9-1	37.2649
2	WAYNE	9-1	32.4500
3	MOELLER	7-3	30.4652
4	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.1000
5	GLEN ESTE	9-1	26.4500
6	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
7	COLERAIN	9-1	26.1081
8	NORTHMONT	8-2	25.5000
9	MASON	8-2	24.1500
10	LASALLE	8-2	23.9439
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

DISCLAIMER

2005-10-24T16:35:00.000-04:00

These projections take into consider the results of many games that I will not detail here. Any difference between my projection in one of those games and the game's actual results could change the seeding of multiple teams. These projections should give you an approximation of what the top eight teams will look like based on the results of major games.

The subsequent projections are projected Harbin rankings with a change to the base scenario listed as the post's title.

JK

BASE SCENARIO

2005-10-24T16:24:00.000-04:00

This is what I think will happen:

St. Xavier over Moeller
Wayne over Sidney
Centerville over Springfield North
Glen Este over Harrison
Lakota East over Lakota West
Colerain over Oak Hills
Northmont over Troy
Mason over Winton Woods
LaSalle over Woodward
Fairfield over Hamilton

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.3186
2	WAYNE	9-1	32.4500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.0500
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
5	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
6	COLERAIN	9-1	26.1081
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	25.5000
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.7136
9	MASON	8-2	24.1500
10	LASALLE	8-2	23.3379
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

GENERAL INFORMATION

2005-10-24T15:19:00.000-04:00

Wayne has clinched a home playoff game with their win over Northmont Saturday.
Centerville must defeat Springfield North next week to clinch a first round home playoff game
Glen Este, Lakota East, Colerain, and Northmont are still way to close to call
Lakota East, Colerain, and Northmont must each win next week to make the playoffs
Glen Este can lose in week 10 against Harrison and still have a good shot at the #8 seed
Moeller can clinch a home game with a win over St. Xavier
Mason can get into the playoffs with a win over Winton Woods and a loss by any of the following teams: Northmont, Colerain, or Lakota East.
LaSalle can get into the playoffs with a win over Woodward and two losses by the following teams: Northmont, Colerain, Lakota East, and Mason.
Fairfield has little chance at a playoff spot.

WAYNE

2005-10-24T14:17:00.000-04:00

With Moeller's loss in week 9 to Lakewood St. Edward, Huber Heights Wayne can clinch the #2 seed in Region 4 with a win this week against Sidney.

WAYNE

2005-10-23T11:46:00.000-04:00

Huber Heights Wayne will clinch the #2 seed in Region 4 with a win over Sidney this week. After defeating Centerville and Northmont by a combined score of 78-15, they clearly deserve the #2 a home game.

CONGRATULATIONS TO ST. XAVIER

2005-10-22T15:39:00.000-04:00

With their 22-0 win today over Cleveland St. Ignatius, St. Xavier has clinched the #1 seed in the Region 4 playoffs for the second consecutive season. Congratulations.

MOELLER: #9 OR #1?????

2005-10-22T00:33:00.000-04:00

Moeller finds themselves in probably one of the most amazing situations in the history of the Harbins. Here is the low-down on Moeller.

If Moeller goes 0-2 to end the year, they will probably make the playoffs with the #8 seed, but could conceivebly find themselves at #9 if LaSalle and Mason get enough help in the form of Level 2 points.
If Moeller goes 1-1 to end the year, they will host a first round playoff game, probably with the #3 or #4 seed
If Moeller goes 2-0 to end the year, they will have around 36 Harbin points, and either the #1 or #2 seed in the region. Moeller would finish #2 if St. Xavier beat St. Ignatius on Saturday. If St. Xavier lost to St. Ignatius, them Moeller and St. Xavier would be neck and neck for the #1 spot.

There you have it. Moeller controls their own destiny.

MID-WEEK 9 HARBIN PROJECTIONS

2005-10-22T00:18:00.000-04:00

With a few games left to input into my spreadsheet for tonight, and with the Saturday games left to input, here are my mid-week 9 projections.

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	41.2670
2	WAYNE	9-1	32.4500
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.1000
4	GLEN ESTE	9-1	26.4500
5	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
6	COLERAIN	9-1	26.1081
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	25.5000
8	MOELLER	6-4	25.2187
9	MASON	8-2	24.1500
10	LASALLE	8-2	23.2874
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

GAMES OF IMPORTANCE

2005-10-20T18:51:00.000-04:00

Check back here tomorrow afternoon to see which week 9 games involving teams both in, and out of the playoff hunt, will determine where teams are seeded, and which teams will be left out of the playoffs.

2005-10-20T18:49:00.000-04:00

CLAYTON NORTHMONT

Clayton Northmont must win one of its final two games to make the playoffs in Region 4. If Northmont sweeps Wayne and Troy, they will be either the #2 or #3 seed in the Region, but if they lose to Wayne and beat Troy, they will be the #6 - #8 seed, depending on how Lakota East and Moeller fare in the week’s last two weeks. If Northmont loses to both Wayne and Troy, they have no chance at making the playoffs.

MOELLER

Moeller is in an amazing position after week 8. If Moeller wins out, they will be the #1 or #2 seed in Region 4, but if they lose out, they could possibly finish out of the playoffs. Never has a team had so much riding on their last two games. Moeller should really be rooting on the opponents that they have beaten this year and be rooting against teams that LaSalle and Mason have beaten if Moeller needs to slide in the playoffs at 6-4.

LASALLE

LaSalle is in a bad way after week 8. Since they will have a difficult time overtaking Moeller for the #8 spot, LaSalle needs to hold off Mason AND have either Lakota East or Colerain to lose once, or Northmont to lose twice to make the playoffs. Losing to Northmont without their starting quarterback isn’t what is keeping the Lancers on the outside looking in, rather games against Purcell-Marian (1-7) and Woodward (1-7) are what look to be dooming LaSalle.
MASON

Mason needs help to make the playoffs. Mason’s best chance at the playoffs would come from a week 10 Lakota West win over Lakota East. The accompanying Level 2 points would leapfrog Mason over LaSalle and the Lakota East loss would knock East out of the playoffs, freeing the #8 spot for Mason.

FAIRFIELD

Fairfield has no realistic chance at the playoffs. They are only still on my board because they would be the team to slide in the #8 spot if things got nuts in the last two weeks and many of the teams needing to win to make the playoffs would end up losing. Fairfield would make it if Lakota East lost to Lakota West, Northmont lost to Wayne and Troy, AND Mason lost to Winton Woods. I don’t think that would happen, but if it did, then Fairfield, by default, would make the playoffs.

COLERAIN, GLEN ESTE, LAKOTA EAST

2005-10-19T22:28:00.000-04:00

Due to school and work obligations I haven't had the time to make specific tables for the remainder of the playoff teams, but did do some calculations to support my statements.

COLERAIN

Colerain is in great shape to make the playoffs. I foresee no scenario that would have Colerain on the sidelines in week 11. Colerain has a good chance at being the #4 seed and Colerain fans’ hearts should not be troubled.

GLEN ESTE

Glen Este got a huge win Friday night over Winton Woods that nearly clinched a playoff birth. At 9-1, Glen Este will be fighting with Colerain for the #5 seed, but if Glen Este falls to Harrison in week 10, they will likely be the #7 seed, but less than 1.0000 points ahead of #9 LaSalle.

LAKOTA EAST

Lakota East must win out and finish 8-2 to make the playoffs. After two early losses, they have been playing playoff games for most of the season, so they should be accustomed to the pressure. If Lakota East wins out, they will likely be the #6 seed with the possibility to move up if Colerain and/or Glen Este don’t get as much Level 2 points as expected.

CENTERVILLE

2005-10-18T23:31:00.000-04:00

Centerville has to win one of their last two games to clinch a home playoff game in the first round of the playoffs. If Centerville goes 9-1, they will be the #3 seed if Wayne beats Northmont. If Centerville finished 9-1 and Northmont beats Wayne, Centerville will be .1000 points behind Northmont for the #2 spot and could very easily jump over Northmont for the #2 spot. If Centerville loses to Kettering Fairmont in week 9, they will be the #3 seed with 28.9000 points. If Centerville beats Fairmont, but loses to Springfield North, they will be the #3 seed with 27.7500 points. If Centerville loses both remaining games, they will be the #7 seed with 25.9500 points.

CENTERVILLE (9-1) (Wayne over Northmont])

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Wayne (9-1) 33.0000
3. Centerville (9-1) 30.7000
4. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
5. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
6. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
7. Northmont (8-2) 26.1000
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

CENTERVILLE (9-1) (Northmont over Wayne)

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Northmont (9-1) 31.4000
3. Centerville (9-1) 31.3000
4. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
5. Wayne (8-2) 27.3500
6. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
7. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

CENTERVILLE (8-2) (Loss to Kettering Fairmont)

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Wayne (9-1) 33.6000
3. Centerville (8-2) 28.9000
4. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
5. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
6. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
7. Northmont (8-2) 26.1000
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

CENTERVILLE (8-2) (Loss to Springfield North)

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Wayne (9-1) 33.6000
3. Centerville (8-2) 27.7500
4. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
5. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
6. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
7. Northmont (8-2) 26.1000
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

CENTERVILLE (7-3)

1. St. Xavier (10-0) 41.3716
2. Wayne (9-1) 34.2000
3. Colerain (9-1) 27.4212
4. Glen Este (9-1) 27.0500
5. Lakota East (8-2) 26.3500
6. Northmont (8-2) 26.1000
7. Centerville (7-3) 25.9500
8. Moeller (6-4) 24.6126

WAYNE

2005-10-18T01:09:00.000-04:00

Huber Heights Wayne will earn the #2 seed in Region 4 if they defeat Clayton Northmont this week and take care of Sidney in their regular season finale. This will give them 33.0000 Harbin points and a 2.3000 Harbin point lead over projected #3 seed, Centerville @ 31.3000. If Wayne loses to Northmont, they will have 27.3500 Harbin points, which would put them in the #5 seed, .0712 points behind #4 Colerain and .3000 points above #6 Glen Este.

WAYNE (9-1)

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	43.8459
2	WAYNE	9-1	33.0000
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	30.7000
4	COLERAIN	9-1	27.4212
5	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
6	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	26.1000
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.6126
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.8934
10	MASON	8-2	23.6000
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

WAYNE (8-2)

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	43.8459
2	NORTHMONT	9-1	31.4000
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	31.3000
4	COLERAIN	9-1	27.4212
5	WAYNE	8-2	27.3500
6	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
7	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.6126
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.8934
10	MASON	8-2	23.6000
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

NOTE ON PROJECTIONS

2005-10-17T19:18:00.000-04:00

Throughout the week, I will be doing a scenario or two for each team in the last two weeks. This is the base scenario that I am using for my projections, unless otherwise noted.

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	43.8459
2	WAYNE	9-1	33.0000
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	31.3000
4	COLERAIN	9-1	27.4212
5	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
6	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	26.1000
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.6126
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.8934
10	MASON	8-2	23.6000
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

1. St. Xavier: Wins over Cleveland St. Ignatius and Moeller
2. Wayne: Wins over Northmont and Sidney
3. Centerville: Wins over Kettering Fairmont and Springfield North
4. Colerain: Wins over Middletown and Oak Hills
5. Glen Este: Wins over Amelia and Harrison
6. Lakota East: Wins over Sycamore and Lakota West
7. Northmont: Loss to Wayne, Win over Troy
8. Moeller: Losses to Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier
9. LaSalle: Wins over Purcell-Marian and Woodward
10. Mason: Wins over Harrison and Winton Woods
11. Fairfield: Wins over Milford and Hamilton

ST. XAVIER

2005-10-17T18:48:00.000-04:00

St. Xavier is the class of Region 4. They have dominated every opponent since winning 24-21 at Indianapolis Cathedral. St. Xavier has clinched a home game in the first round of the playoffs and can clinch the #1 seed with any of the following: a St. Xavier win this week vs. Cleveland St. Ignatius, a Moeller loss to Lakewood St. Edward, or a St. Xavier win over Moeller in week 10.

UPDATES THIS WEEK

2005-10-16T11:15:00.000-04:00

Throughout the week, I'll go team-by-team stating where they could finish if certain scenarios come to fruition. Also, as you notice the little disparity in Harbin points between teams, such as Glen Este and Colerain, for example, these projections are subject to change, and with two weeks left in the season, there are many variables left that could change the seedings.

Hopefully your team is in the top 8, and if they're not, I'll see if I can come up with a scenario that'll put them there.

JK

POST-WEEK 8 HARBINS

2005-10-16T11:09:00.000-04:00

These are my projections after week 8. I was very impressed with Wayne last week, so I changed my prediction next week to a Wayne win over Northmont. I also changed a Xenia win over Springfield South in week 10 to a Xenia loss.

1	ST. XAVIER	10-0	43.8459
2	WAYNE	9-1	33.0000
3	CENTERVILLE	9-1	31.3000
4	COLERAIN	9-1	27.4212
5	GLEN ESTE	9-1	27.0500
6	LAKOTA EAST	8-2	26.3500
7	NORTHMONT	8-2	26.1000
8	MOELLER	6-4	24.6126
9	LASALLE	8-2	23.8934
10	MASON	8-2	23.6000
11	FAIRFIELD	8-2	22.3000

WAYNE

2005-10-15T13:22:00.000-04:00

If Wayne beats Northmont, they are in good shape for the #2 seed in Region 4. If they lose to Northmont, they are in the mix with Colerain, Glen Este, and Lakota East for the #4-#7 spots in the Region.

UPDATES THIS WEEKEND

2005-10-15T01:29:00.000-04:00

I've updated my projections with the updated scores from tonight's games, but will not put up my projections until the Saturday night games are completed. This is what I can tell you now:

Wayne and Glen Este are in the playoffs
St. Xavier can clinch the #1 seed with a win on Saturday night and a Moeller loss to Lakewood St. Edward or a St. Xavier win over Cleveland St. Ignatius.
Colerain, Glen Este, and Lakota East are still battling it out for the final home playoff seed
Moeller, LaSalle and Mason are now fighting it out for the #8 spot, instead of the #7 and #8 spots due to the Wayne and Glen Este wins tonight.

PREP SPORTS PRIMETIME

2005-10-13T02:08:00.000-04:00

I will be a guest on Prep Sports Primetime today (Thursday) on 1360 Homer, The Sports Animal. Prep Sports Primetime is a weekly high school football radio show that airs each Thursday from 6:00pm-7:00pm live from Champions Grille in the heart of the west side. Host Sean O'Connor and commentators Tom Kennedy, Steve Bengel, and Micah Peavley break down the prior week's games and analyze the key games in the upcoming weekend. Tonight we will be discussing the Harbin races and the key remaining games that will shape the Region 4 playoff field. Come and join us tonight at Champions or tune your radio to The Sports Animal.

Thanks,

JK

UPDATE

2005-10-10T17:05:00.000-04:00

With three weeks left in the regular season, it is a little too early to get real specific about where teams will end up. There are too many variables left that could bump one team up a spot while others could knock another team down a playoff spot. I would love to go through the different scenarios that readers come up with, because they could be more accurate than what I think will happen. However with work and a full college schedule, I don't have the free time that I've had in past years. If you have any comments or questions, just drop me a comment, and I'll take a good look at them when doing my updates.

Thanks,

JK

WHERE THEY'LL FINISH

2005-10-08T13:25:00.000-04:00

ST. XAVIER:
10-0: 1 seed
9-1: 1 seed
8-2: 1-2 seed (1 seed if Wayne beats Centerville)

CENTERVILLE:
10-0: 2 seed
9-1: 2-3 seed

NORTHMONT:
9-1: 3 seed
8-2: 6-8 seed

GLEN ESTE:
9-1: 3-5 seed
8-2: No playoffs

COLERAIN:
9-1: 4-6 seed

LAKOTA EAST:
*8-2: 4-6 seed
*7-3: No playoffs

MOELLER:
8-2: 3 seed
7-3: 3-4 seed
6-4: 7-10 seed

LASALLE:
8-2: 7-10 seed

MASON:
8-2: 7-10 seed

FAIRFIELD:
8-2: 10-11 seed

WAYNE:
9-1: 2 seed
8-2: 6-7 seed
7-3: No playoffs

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

2005-10-08T13:22:00.000-04:00

With Glen Este, Colerain, and Lakota East being so close to each other in projected Harbin points, it is still too early to call this race, as it would take only one missed game on my part to change each of these teams seeds. The same thing goes for Wayne, Moeller, LaSalle, and Mason. Hopefully after week 8, we'll have a good idea of where each team will stand.

5 MOST IMPORTANT GAMES FOR WEEK 8

2005-10-08T13:11:00.000-04:00

1. Glen Este vs. Winton Woods: If Glen Este wins, they are in the playoffs, fighting with Colerain AND Lakota East for the #4 seed in Region 4. If Glen Este loses, they are out of playoff contention.

2. Centerville @ Wayne: Wayne must win against Centerville or Northmont to make the playoffs. If they lose both games, they are out, if they win one of the games, they are on the road in week 11, and if they win both, they will have a home playoff game. If Centerville wins this game, they will be the #2 seed in Region 4 for back-to-back seasons.

3. Moeller @ Columbus St. Francis DeSales: Moeller must win one of its last three games to give it a chance to make the playoffs. At 6-4, Moeller would be fighting with LaSalle and Mason for the last playoff spot. With games at Lakewood St. Edward and against St. Xavier at Paul Brown Stadium, this is a must-win for Moeller. DeSales almost upset Moeller at Lockland last year, and Moeller surely will have their hands full in Columbus this Friday.

4. East Central @ LaSalle: LaSalle must win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. LaSalle has had a good history against East Central, and a win Friday night would supply LaSalle with a boatload of Harbin points.

5. St. Francis (NY) @ St. Xavier: A St. Xavier win and a Centerville loss would clinch the #1 seed for St. Xavier for the second consecutive year. If Centerville loses to Wayne, St. Xavier would be the #1 seed with an 8-2 record. That's what a good schedule can do for a team.

"UNDER THE RADAR" GAMES NEXT WEEK

2005-10-08T02:29:00.000-04:00

1. Lakota West vs. Princeton: A Princeton upset could really shake things up in the Harbin races. It would bring about a 1.2 point swing in favor of Fairfield over Mason, and really hurt Mason's chances of catching LaSalle or Moeller. It would also increase Colerain's lead over Glen Este by .6 points.

2. Elder vs. Indianapolis Bishop Chatard: An Elder loss could drop LaSalle/Moeller below Mason for the #8 seed in the playoffs. An Elder win could go a long way in getting their GCL rival(s) into the playoffs.

3. Robert E. Lee (Texas) vs. North Mesquite (Texas): A Lee loss could be the difference in a Colerain home game or road game in the first round of the playoffs.

4. Woodward vs. Aiken: LaSalle received a pleasant surprise Friday night when they learned that Woodward defeated Jefferson Township (2-5) 14-12. If Woodward wins this week against Aiken (1-6) or next week against Shroeder Padeia (Div 5, 3-3), LaSalle's playoff chances will skyrocket.

5. Simon Kenton vs. Ryle: A Ryle win and a Glen Este win will put Glen Este ahead of Colerain in the projections and have Glen Este hosting a first round playoff game.

CENTERVILLE, NORTHMONT, & WAYNE

2005-10-08T02:20:00.000-04:00

Here's my attempt to solve the Dayton Harbin puzzle:

Scenario 1: Centerville over Wayne, Northmont over Wayne
Centerville 2 seed, Northmont 3 seed, Wayne out of playoffs

Scenario 2: Centerville over Wayne, Wayne over Northmont
Centerville 2 seed, Northmont 6-8 seed, Wayne 5-7 seed

Scenario 3: Wayne over Centerville, Northmont over Wayne
Centerville 2 seed, Northmont 3 seed, Wayne 4-6 seed

Scenario 4: Wayne over Centerville, Wayne over Northmont
Centerville 3 seed, Northmont 6-8 seed, Wayne 2 seed

ST. XAVIER

2005-10-08T02:15:00.000-04:00

Congratulations to Steve Specht and the St. Xavier Bombers! Their win over LaSalle has guaranteed St. Xavier a home playoff game in the first round of the playoffs. Even if St. Xavier ends the year 0-3 (which they won't), they'd have over a projected 31 Harbin points, which would be more than enough to host a first round playoff game. At 9-1 or 10-0, St. Xavier will be the #1 seed in Region 4.

GLEN ESTE & COLERAIN

2005-10-08T02:10:00.000-04:00

Despite losing to Mason Friday night, Glen Este still has a chance at a home playoff game. My projections have Glen Este finishing 5th, behind Colerain, with 26.9000 points. If I predict one game incorrectly for either Colerain or Glen Este in Glen Este's favor, Colerain will be the #5 seed, and Glen Este will move up to #4. This is possible because I have Tyler Lee, Texas winning their last three games, and after their performance on Fox Sports Net Thursday night, they might not win all those games, which could cost Colerain a home game. Once again, it's way too early to project specific seeds, as there are 3 weeks remaining.

If Glen Este wins out: 4-6 seed
If Colerain wins out: 4-6 seed

MOELLER, LASALLE, WAYNE, & MASON

2005-10-08T02:04:00.000-04:00

These 4 teams are competing for the final 2 playoff spots, and with 3 weeks to play and with Moeller, LaSalle, and Mason all within 1 points of each other, it is way too early to tell who will be the odd team out in the playoffs. If Wayne beats EITHER Northmont or Centerville, they will be in the playoffs, and two of the three teams (Moeller, LaSalle, and Mason) will be out.

WHO MOELLER, LASALLE, AND MASON SHOULD BE ROOTING FOR:
Winton Woods over Glen Este in week 8 (Knocking Glen Este out of playoff contention)
Lakota West over Lakota East in week 10 (Knocking East out)

POST WEEK 7 PROJECTIONS

2005-10-08T02:03:00.000-04:00

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1	ST. XAVIER	(10-0)	44.4129
2	CENTERVILLE	(10-0)	36.0000
3	NORTHMONT	(9-1)	30.2500
4	COLERAIN	(9-1)	27.4212
5	GLEN ESTE	(9-1)	26.9000
6	LAKOTA EAST	(8-2)	26.3500
7	MOELLER	(6-4)	25.1682
8	LASALLE	(8-2)	25.0551

9	MASON	(8-2)	24.7500
10	FAIRFIELD	(8-2)	22.9000
12	WAYNE	(7-3)	21.4500

A COLERAIN HOME GAME???

2005-10-07T14:54:00.000-04:00

For Colerain to get a home game, they have to finish the season 9-1, and get some help from either Glen Este, Northmont, Centerville, and Wayne, AND avoid a LaSalle upset of St. Xavier tonight. Colerain will have a home game if:

1. Glen Este loses to either Winton Woods or Mason & LaSalle loses to St. Xavier
2. Northmont loses to Wayne (and Wayne loses to Centerville) & LaSalle loses to St .Xavier
3. Northmont beats Wayne and Centerville, Wayne beats Centerville, and LaSalle loses to St. Xavier

Hopefully that makes sense.

PLAYOFF GAME AT FAIRFIELD THIS WEEK

2005-10-05T17:46:00.000-04:00

Make no mistake about it, the Lakota West - Fairfield game is a playoff game this week. Lakota West and Fairfield are both 4-2 and on the bubble for a playoff birth. The winner of the game will be fighting for the last playoffs spot for the rest of the year, and the loser will find themselves out of contention.

5 MOST IMPORTANT GAMES FOR WEEK 7

2005-10-05T17:32:00.000-04:00

1. LaSalle @ St. Xavier: A St. Xavier win will almost guarantee St. Xavier a first-round playoff game, and a LaSalle win will solidify a playoff birth for LaSalle, and will likely put LaSalle in position for a home playoff game. Oh yeah, the GCL title is at stake in this game, too.

2. Mason @ Glen Este: Mason must win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Glen Este must win to get a home playoff game. If Glen Este splits with Mason and Winton Woods, they will be on the road in week 11; if they beat both Mason and Winton Woods, they'll have a first round playoff game; if they lose both games, they are out of the playoffs.

3. Moeller @ Elder: Moeller must finish the season 6-4 to have a good shot at making the playoffs. At 4-2 with games left against Lakewood St. Edward and St. Xavier, Moeller would do well to win this game, and have some margin for error in the last three weeks.

4. Lakota East @ Middletown: A Lakota East loss will put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Wins on the road in the GMC do not come easily (outside of Colerain) and Lakota East needs to win out to guarantee a playoff birth.

5. Lebanon @ Springboro: Lebanon must win out to make the playoffs. At 6-0, Springboro is the class of Region 8, and they put a hurting on Lebanon at Lebanon last year. If Lebanon wins this game, their playoff chances are good, if they lose, they have 0% chance of making the playoffs.

LEBANON & MASON

2005-10-05T17:29:00.000-04:00

Lebanon has to beat Springboro (6-0) and Mason has to beat Glen Este (6-0) to keep their playoff chances alive. If they lose this week, they are out of any playoff contention.

THANK YOU

2005-10-05T17:28:00.000-04:00

I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who has visited the site. Hopefully you have found it informative.

POST-WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS

2005-10-01T13:28:00.000-04:00

These projections factor in a LaSalle win over Moeller, and are subject to change:

1. ST. XAVIER	(10-0)	43.8500
2. CENTERVILLE	(10-0)	35.4500
3. GLEN ESTE	(10-0)	30.9500
4. NORTHMONT	(9-1)	30.2000
5. COLERAIN	(9-1)	27.4212
6. LAKOTA EAST	(8-2)	26.3500
7. LASALLE	(8-2)	26.0000
8. MOELLER	(6-4)	24.9500
9. FAIRFIELD	(8-2)	22.9000
10. WAYNE	(7-3)	21.5500
11. LEBANON	(8-2)	20.7000
12. MASON	(7-3)	18.5000

14 Teams for 8 Spots

2005-10-01T13:15:00.000-04:00

There are 14 teams that have any shot at the playoffs in Region 4 this year: St. Xavier, Centerville, Glen Este, Northmont, Colerain, Lakota East, LaSalle, Moeller, Fairfield, Wayne, Lebanon, Mason, Lakota West, and Troy.

TEAMS THAT MUST WIN OUT

2005-09-26T16:01:00.001-04:00

The following teams must finish the season 5-0 to make the playoffs:

COLERAIN
ELDER
FAIRFIELD
LAKOTA WEST
LEBANON
MASON
MIDDLETOWN
OAK HILLS
WITHROW (Probably out at 9-1)
LAKOTA EAST (edited)